|Over 9 (-105) @ pinnacle|
Take Houston – Oakland OVER (#907-908)
The ball doesn’t carry at night at Dodgers Stadium; making it difficult to hit for power for evening start games. But the ball tends to carry much better before the evening air off the Pacific Ocean thickens – betting Overs in afternoon games at Dodgers Stadium is a positive expectation wager, plain and simple, because the long term statistical profile doesn’t show that day/night dichotomy in how the ball carries.
We’ve got two ‘bet-on’ lineups here. Yesterday’s game featured six home runs, 24 hits and 15 runs scored. The a’s have scored five or more runs in each of their last three playoff games, all flying Over the total. And the Astros playoff tested bats certainly found a nice rhythm yesterday; a lineup that is more than capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves.
Even if we get strong outings from both starting pitchers today – a big ‘if’ – neither bullpen is reliable today after both pens got used extensively in the opener yesterday after neither starter was able to last into the fifth inning. Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to the long ball, allowing three dingers in his last two starts, while Framber Valdez got lit up for 13 earned runs in 12 innings of work in his two September starts in LA. Expect plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard here! Take the OVER.