|ANA (150) @ williamhill|
Taking the Ducks for 8* here...
Anaheim has been playing much better lately, and Arizona has been playing much worse. In their last 10 games at 5 on 5, the Ducks have a 5% edge in expected goals (6th in the league), while scoring 11% LESS goals than expected. Regression is in our favor, as the Ducks should close that 11% gap in the near future.
The Coyotes have scored 2% MORE goals than expected, so we don't have to worry about betting against regression. They're also only 26th in the league in expected goals in their last 10 games with 48%.
The Ducks blew a 3-0 lead in the 2nd period so they'll come out firing early. If Gibson starts, he's good enough to steal the game even if they get outplayed, but I don't think they will in this one.