|7.5 JAC (-108) @ Draftkings|
8* Take Jacksonville (#468)
The Bears have a grand total of zero road wins by more than a touchdown this season. In fact, you can go back further: 13 consecutive road games without a win by eight points or more, dating back to last year. Laying more than a TD on the highway with a Matt Nagy team is not something I’m looking to do.
The Bears are coming off a huge division win, knocking off the Vikings in Minnesota. That marked their third division game in a four week span, all hotly contested. Next week, they’ve got their season finale at home against the Packers. Sure, every game is ‘must win’ for a mediocre team trying to make the playoffs, but this has all the makings of a flat spot for the big road favorite.
But the real crux of this bet is backing Jacksonville in their home finale. Yes, the Jags were awful against the Ravens last week, and not much better against the Titans the week before. Four of their previous five losses came by four points or less – they’re not getting blown out every week. And Chicago doesn’t have the brute physicality of either one of those squads. Plus, Mitch Trubisky is no Lamar Jackson or Ryan Tannehill. And whether it’s Mike Glennon or Gardner Minshew behind center for the Jags this week, he’ll be facing a Bears defense that has been lit up of late; allowing 27+ three times in their last four ballgames. Chicago could be missing two of their top three cornerbacks as well.
The Jets won SU last week. The Bengals won SU last week. Bad teams can and do have solid showings, especially late in the season and especially against opponents that are likely to look past them. Never forget that while fans and ownership sometimes root for their team to lose for draft positioning, players and coaches are NEVER rooting for that #1 overall pick, because it means they’ll likely be fired (for coaches) and could be looking for new jobs (for players).
Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone said it best, after the Jags blowout loss to Baltimore last week: “This team has been going through a lot and is trying hard. The greatest gift we can give to each other is the gift of winning a football game.” Live dog here! Take the Jaguars