|-1.5 MON (206) @ Betamerica|
Taking the Canadiens -1.5 for a 2* add-on here...
below copied from Montreal ML bet:
First, Montreal just fired their coach after losing three games in a row, but it seems that this was just the excuse they needed to justify firing him. I was listening to a podcast where the rumor was that Claude Julien was too much of a defense-first type of coach when the team is built more for a run and gun offensive style game. In the NHL, teams typically win their next game after a coaching change (no stats -- anecdotal evidence).
Either way, the Canadiens were playing great despite losing. They're at the top of the league in expected goals in their last 10 games at 5 on 5 (and over the course of the season) with 56.5%. To put that in perspective, the next closest team is the Leafs with 54%, and then there are 7 teams between 52% and 53%.
Another factor in betting this game is that the Jets are terrible at 5 on 5 play, holding the dead last spot in the league with 39% over their last 10 games. To put that in perspective, the next closest team is Columbus with 44%. So we have the biggest possible mismatch in terms of expected goals at 5 on 5.
Next we have the trends in favor of Montreal:
-Favorite on a 3 game losing streak with a 1 goal loss last game -- 64% win rate and 8% ROI over 450 bets.
-Fade 1st game home from road trip after 1-2 game win streak -- 64% win rate and 12% ROI over 200 bets.
Lastly, the Canadiens were screwed last game against the Senators when their goal should have counted in the last seconds of the game (in my opinion). They significantly outplayed the Senators and deserved the win. That has to be in their minds when they head into tonight's game as well.
This bet is a steal at this price. Take the Candiens to win.