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Pick Details


NCAAB EVENT
Mar 28 2021 at 7:15 PM ET
UCLA
at
Alabama
Sport: NCAAB | Star Rating: 9.0 Evaluation: Loss (-990) - Final Total 166
Pick
Under 145 (-110) @ williamhill

9* Take UCLA – Alabama UNDER (#645-646)

Mick Cronin and Nate Oats met here in the Big Dance in 2018 when Oats was with Buffalo and Cronin was with Cincinnati.  The game was played at Cronin’s preferred pace, not Oats, finishing 14 points Under the closing total despite 20 ‘scramble’ points in the last two minutes of a tight game.

Oats knows what’s coming for his fast-paced Crimson Tide team today: “We’ve got to be tough, rebound the ball, play a great defensive game. We won’t speed them up to our pace.  We’ll have to defend late in the shot clock.  We’re going to have to be disciplined and guard for 30 seconds.  We’ve got to get that first rebound.”

When we read between the lines of that quote, the Under really stands out.  Alabama is worried about rebounding, not getting out on the fast break.  They’re worried about defending late into the shot clock, not playing ‘up and down the court’ style basketball.  They know they can’t speed a Mick Cronin team up to play at a fast pace.  When the fast paced team’s head coach is emphasizing defense and rebounding, that’s rarely good news for Over bettors.

UCLA is only 3-2 to the Under in their last five games because two of those games went to overtime.  This is their highest totaled game in the last five weeks; not a ‘Bruins’ number.  Bama is coming off a 96 point showing against Maryland in a game where the Terps tried to play small ball with them.  Don’t expect the Bruins to make that same mistake.  Take the UNDER.

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