|2.5 TOL (-110) @ bet365|
8* Take Toledo (#119)
Toledo is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets in the MAC this season. The Rockets were 4-1 (the only loss a competitive game at Kentucky) last year when their QB went down early in a game at Bowling Green, where Toledo was a 26 point favorite. Without their QB, the team collapsed, losing five of their last seven; four of them by double digit margins. Every quote I’ve seen from the Rockets this year has been about redemption, about making amends for last year’s collapse, and they certainly did that in their season opening blowout win.
Toledo played Western last year before their season turned south. They beat the Broncos by a TD. They won by 27 on their last visit to Kalamazoo in 2018 and won by 27 the previous year as well – the Rockets have been the better program, since PJ Fleck left for the Minnesota job following Western’s 13 win season in 2016. Their recruiting strategy –get the fast kids who aren’t big enough to play at Ohio State and the kids who didn’t have the grades and needed JUCO – has paid dividends, literally, for decades. Make no mistake about it – the Rockets have a talented lineup on both sides of the football.
Waldo Stadium is normally a pretty tough place to play when the stands are packed; one of the bigger homefield edges in the MAC – the Broncos went 6-0 SU on this field last year. Then again, all they did was face flawed foes & weaklings on this field last year; a 7-6 team that was laying -25.5, -8.5, -16.5, -13, -27.5 and -7 in those six home games. Toledo’s a powerhouse, not a weakling; they’ve got a collective ‘bet-on’ chip on their shoulder, and this homefield edge, just like the homefields around all of college football, just isn’t worth much without fans in the stands. Wrong team favored in this bettor’s opinion. Take Toledo.