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Pick Details


MLB EVENT
May 14 2021 at 7:37 PM ET
Philadelphia
at
Toronto
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Win (1350)
Pick
PHI (135) @ pinnacle

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #931 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +140 @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:35 ET - At first glance it looks easy to grab the home team here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the road dog in this one but it is certainly not without reason. For starters, getting +140 with the Phillies in this situation is great value simply based on the value of team on team match-ups. But lets talk about the starting pitching here. Vince Velasquez has always been one of those guys that is hard to trust but has good stuff when he is locked in. In other words, he is a streaky pitcher and on rare occasions you can then ride those streaks. That is what I am looking to do here. He enters this start with a 3.20 ERA in his 4 starts since taking over Matt Moore's spot in the rotation. Also, the Blue Jays have 8 hitters with experience against them and two have fared well but the other 6 are a combined 1 for 29 against him! That certainly does not bode well for Toronto in terms of being able to sustain rallies in this one. Also, the Phillies are likely to have a huge day at the plate in this one. Steven Matz has been hit hard of late and has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, the Phillies have 4 players with between 13 and 29 at bats against Matz that are all hitting between .316 and .533 against him. This is unlikely to be a good match-up for the Jays southpaw whom, as a former Met, the Phillies know very very well. 10* PHILADELPHIA +140

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