This is a high price to pay against Kyle Hendricks, but I agree with it. In Hendricks' last 10 games as a road underdog, he's just 3-7 with his team giving up 27 runs in the last 4 of those (and 0-3 L3 as a road dog when the opponent is -130 or higher). He's also been worse on the road in his career than at home (3.73 ERA to 2.55). He's 0-1 in his last 3 years at Miller Park but has had 4 starts in those games, even though his ERA has been good. Milwaukee is 5-2 L7 at home against the Cubs and 7-3 overall L10 against them. This is a terrible matchup for the Cubs' offense, as they lead the MLB in K rate against a starter in Woodruff that's averaging 10.73 K's per 9 innings.
Woodruff is 0-1 against the Cubs in his career but has given up just 5 runs in 4 starts (23 1/3 IP) in his last 2 years against them. Milwaukee's offense has heated up L3 games, scoring 24 runs in that span, and they just seem to be moving in a different direction than the Cubs, who are hitting at a historically low pace right now.