|VAN (120) @ Pointsbet|
Taking the Canucks for 6* here...
Pasting my writeup from last game since nothing has really changed except the Canucks blew a 3-0 lead and 3-1 lead heading into the 3rd period. I think that will give the Canucks a little more motivation to win this one, but also the Oilers will try harder to not go down early.
This is a matchup between an underperforming team (relative to stats) vs an overperforming team. Very similar to the Flames vs Leafs last night, where we bet on the Flames. Vancouver is 2-8 in their last 10 games while Edmonton is 8-2, yet the Canucks are only a slight underdog at home. That alone should tell you the wins and losses aren't what they seem to be.
Vancouver absolutely dominated the Jets last game but still ended up with a loss. They actually outplayed Winnipeg the game before as well but lost that one too. Teams that play much better than the other team at 5 on 5 will eventually start getting wins.
The Canucks have generated 51% of expected goals at 5 on 5 in their last 10 games, compared to just 46% for the Oilers. 14th in the league for Vancouver, 27th in the league for Edmonton. That's a big difference, but the even bigger difference is the gap between the Canucks actual goals and expected goals.
They have scored only 32% of goals during that span (19% LESS than expected), while the Oilers scored 60.5% of goals (14.5% MORE than expected). Regression is in our favor and it's rather rare to have this much of a gap going for us and against the other team.