|-6.5 PHO (-104) @ pinnacle|
8 of 10 (80%) Experts with a pick against the spread are aligned. 9* play on the Phoenix Suns (Spread).
Al McMordie: BIG AL's NBA TRIPLE PACK (54-28 RUN)!
The Suns were destroyed by Dallas in Game 6, 113-86, even though the Suns were favored by 2 points. That's the bad news. The good news for this Game 7 is that Phoenix is a spectacular 16-0 ATS its last 16 off an upset road loss, if its opponent was off a double-digit cover. Meanwhile, Dallas is a dreadful 7-19 ATS off an upset playoff win, when matched up against .630 (or better) foes. Phoenix has won all six home meetings vs. the Mavericks the last two seasons (by an average of 12.6 ppg), and is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS vs. Dallas the past 11 games here, at home.
Ben Burns: **14-5 NBA RUN** $123K LUXURY BOX (10*)
While they failed to close things out in Dallas, this what the Suns worked so hard for during the regular season. The chance to play this game on their home floor. I like that the teams play with two day's rest in between game. Other than the first game, where they both had some rest before (Suns won and covered) each other game has had one day's worth of rest in between games. Therefore, it's worth noting that the Suns are 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Even better, they're 17-4 ATS (18-3 SU) the past 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. It's tough to beat this team twice in a row. Already 3-0 SU/ATS when tied in a series, expect the Suns to rise to the occasion with another big win and cover.
Doug Knudson: SEMIFINAL MAYHEM (7-2 PLAYOFF RUN)!
Buy Suns - Look for the #1 seed Phoenix to bounce back from their biggest loss since October 23rd as they look to wrap up game #7 at home - like the Warriors last night, GS let the Grizzlies have their fun at home knowing they only need to take care of business on their home court one more time to move on to the Conference Finals - 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home -
Sell Mavs - The home team will be the much more motivated team tonight as the Mavs went all out to avoid elimination on their home court last out - not only did they upset the Suns, but did so by running up the score handing Suns their biggest loss past 7 months - Suns won't forget (check Warriors Friday) - 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games against Phoenix.
Larry Ness: Larry's 10* 2nd Rnd Best of Best/11-3 run
The fact that the Suns owned the NBA's best record at 64-18, EIGHT games better than Memphis (owners of the 2nd-best mark) and 12 games better than the 4th-seed Mavs, means absolutely NOTHING at the moment. All the pressure is on the Phoenix Suns when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals. The home team has won in the previous six games of the series (also covered), including Dallas staving off elimination in Game 6 with a 113-86 rout of the Suns. A loss here by the Suns would be a 'killer' for a team that made the NBA Finals last season and rolled through the current regular season. The situation allows the fourth-seeded Mavericks to play freely, while the Suns' play will be 'put under the microscope' if they were to be eliminated in the second round.
Doncic missed the first three games of the postseason for Dallas but enters Game 7 tonight averaging 31.1-10.1-6.9. Brunson was the star of the 1st round win over Utah (averaged 27.8 PPG, while topping 20 points in each game) but then scored a total of just 22 points as Dallas fell into an 0-2 'hole.' He's rebounded to help Dallas win THREE of the last four, by averaging 21.3 PPG. SIX Dallas players have played in all 12 games, with Finney-Smith (12.2 & 5.4), Dinwiddie (11.8), Bullock (10.7 & 5.3 plus some excellent defensive efforts) and Kleber (10.7 & 4.5) all chipping in at different times.
The Suns' two-best players have been SG Booker (24.7-5.0-4.7) and center Ayton (19.0 & 9.3). SFs Bridges (13.9 & 4.9) starts and Johnson (10.7 & 3.4) comes off the bench. However, the Suns will need PG Chris Paul to come through for them. He's averaging 18.2 & 8.7 APG in the postseason but that's deceiving. After scoring 47 points with 11 rebounds and 11 assists while Phoenix took a 2-0 lead, he's averaging only 9.3 & 6.3 APG while the Suns have lost THREE of four. He's also had almost as many TOs (18) as assists (25) in that four-span as well.
Speaking of turnovers, the Mavericks committed just SEVEN in their Game 6 rout, while forcing the Suns into 22. "They played harder than us and we typically don't allow that," Phoenix head coach Monty Williams said. "We understand that we turned it over and we did not have a focus. Our concepts in our defensive coverages was nowhere near average." I've NEVER been a huge fan of Paul but he has delivered some 'special' efforts this postseason, along with his 'clunkers.' Doncic is Doncic but Phoenix owns MORE talent and both Booker and Ayton have played at an elite level all season. No reason why the home team won't win AND cover again here, as the Mavericks have lost SEVEN straight games on the Suns' home floor since a victory early in the 2019-20 season. Suns /Warriors will be a great matchup in the Western Conference finals.
Matt Fargo: Fargo's 10* NBA Sunday Star Attraction
We won with Golden St. on Friday in a similar situation and we are backing the Suns in a same spot scenario. The Suns are the best team in the NBA with a 73-21 record and it was a pathetic display in a closeout game in Dallas as Phoenix lost by 27 points after an awful second quarter it could not recover from. The Suns managed only eight fast break points which has been an issue this series and a return home should get them energized as they are 37-10 at home that includes three wins in this series by an average of 15.7 ppg which is closely above their nearly +10 ppg scoring differential on their home floor. Phoenix is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite this season. Dallas has been impressive with basically a one-man show as Luka Doncic has carried the Mavericks throughout the first two series when he has been on the floor. They are 25-22 on the road and while they have done a great job of bottling up Chris Paul, who is averaging just six assists per game in the series after averaging double-digits during the regular season but part of that has been because of foul trouble. The defense has been solid most of the season which has carried them here but that offense is hard to look past as Dallas is ranked No. 24 in scoring and No. 18 in shooting including No. 19 from behind the arc. Here, we play on home teams revenging a road loss of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1996.
Professional Sports Picks: +$24,101 - NBA Side of the Week (10*)
We won our Game of the Month on the Mavs in Game 6 of, but our models suggest that the value is on the Suns in Game 7 of this Western Conference semifinal series. The home team has won and covered the spread in the previous six games of the series. The smallest winning margin was seven points when Phoenix won the opener of the series. The last two games have been decided by 30 and 27 points. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Mavericks are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Phoenix.
Sean Murphy: 8 OF 10? NBA SUNDAY NIGHT PLAYOFF PAYOFF!
We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot.
Spread Knowledge: NBA Excellent Machine Grade value ***A***
Phoenix Suns picks are 32-13-1 when the point spread absolute value is less than current point spread since 2021-10-06 with a profit of +17 units
Phoenix Suns picks are 33-15-1 when the point spread is larger than the current point spread since 2021-10-06 with a profit of +16 units
Phoenix Suns picks are 31-17-1 when after a straight-up loss since 2020-03-06 with a profit of +12 units
Best of luck!
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