|1.5 BAL (-125) @ caesars|
8* Run Line Baltimore (1:05 ET): An odd trend has developed when the Red Sox play the Orioles. The road team has won all eight of this season’s meetings! Boston now holds the 5-3 overall head to head edge after winning 11-6 here at Camden Yards on Saturday. Perhaps we should not be all that shocked by the aforementioned trend considering it’s right in line with Baltimore’s overall play this season. The O’s are tied for the most road wins (11) in all of baseball, but are just 4-12 at home. From the “just due” department, I give you a play on Baltimore today. Please note that I’m taking them on the run line (+1.5).
I certainly did not expect to see Boston leading the AL East this season. But they are out in front with a 21-13 record. They are 11-4 on the road, including 6-1 as a -125 to -175 favorite. But can they keep this up? Over the L7 games, the Red Sox have allowed an average of 6.1 runs per game. Their offense continues to “bail them out,” but it just doesn’t seem like a sustainable blueprint for success. They are actually just 2-6 their L8 games if the opponent surrendered five or more runs the previous game. That is the case here.
None of the previous eight head to head matchups between these teams were decided by one run. So I think we’re due for one of those today. Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the bump. He’s still in search of his 1st win, but is coming off his best start yet where he held Seattle to one run on two hits (6 IP). Boston’s Nick Pivetta had his worst start of 2021 come against the Orioles when he allowed four runs on April 11th. That was another game where the offense bailed the Red Sox out (won 14-9), but that can only happen so many times. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5)
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