10* Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#268)

This is a solid ‘bet-against’ spot for Buffalo.  They’ve won three in a row, including hard fought battles against the Patriots and Seahawks over the last two weeks.  At 7-2, this team is feeling pretty good about themselves, and they’ve got their bye week on tap – a visit to Phoenix in November is not a ‘dig deep’ spot for the road underdog. 

The Bills defense has shown real vulnerability against mobile QB’s and strong passing games.  They finished with a +4 turnover margin last week and still gave up 34 points and 6.7 yards per play.  The Bills rank #20 in opposing QB rating in the NFL even after those interceptions last week; a pass defense that has struggled all year.  And, while Josh Allen lit up the Seahawks shoddy defense last week, let’s not forget that Buffalo has struggled in the red zone all year; bad news against an Arizona defense that ranks #3 in the NFL at keeping teams out of the end zone once they reach the red zone.

The Cardinals offense ranks #5 in red zone TD percentage, cashing in for TD’s 75% of the time, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they stay at that lofty percentage moving forward.  Kyler Murray has guided this Arizona offense to 30+ points in each of the last four weeks.  When any QB is averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 7.1 yards per rushing attempt, that QB is doing something right!  ‘Zona’s receiving corps is finally healthy, and when Murray has DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Isabella and TE Dan Arnold all on the field, this offense is EXTREMELY difficult to stop.  Coming off a frustrating loss to Miami, look for the Cards to bounce back strong here!  Big Ticket: Take Arizona.