|-4.5 SAC (-110) @ williamhill|
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Here we go again, fading the T’wolves off a win. It’s been about the surest bet in the NBA this season. Since starting 2-0, Minnesota has not won back to back games at any point. They are 0-14 SU off a win since that 2-0 start, going 2-11-1 ATS as well. They are being outscored by about 15 PPG in this situation. The last time they were off a win was Sunday and I faded them in Los Angeles (against the Clippers) in what turned out to be a 124-105 loss. They won last night here in Sacramento, 134-120 as 3.5-point underdogs, so there’s only one way to play this matchup from where I sit.
Given all the information listed above, it would be quite embarrassing for the Kings at home B2B days and for a third time this month to the T’wolves. Certainly, little has gone right for Sacramento over the last month as they’ve lost 10 of 11 to play themselves right out of the playoff race. But I can’t see Minnesota shooting 56.7% from the field again (like they did last night). The Kings actually led going into the fourth quarter, which is when everything began to fall apart. They scored just 17 points over the final 12 minutes and were on the wrong end of a 17-3 run down the stretch.
When the T’wolves are off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-12 SU the next game and 2-10 ATS. In the second night of a back to back, they are getting outscored by 9.2 PPG this season. They entered yday tied with Houston for the worst SU record in the league. The Kings are surely better than how they’ve played of late and will be desperate to win at home for the first time this month. Given the situation at hand, I’ll make the RARE move to lay points with them. 8* Sacramento