Pick Details


Pick |
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Under 49.5 (-108) @ pinnacle |
6 of 6 (100%) Experts with a pick on the total are aligned. 10* play on the Arizona vs L.A. Rams UNDER (Total).
Capper Analysis:
AAA Sports: 10* WILDCARD TOTAL BEST OF BEST (+$37K!)
If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters for each side. You know the story lines. Even the most casual NFL fan knows the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams. If you want an in-depth analysis on offensive and defensive stats for each team and individual player breakdowns, then I'd suggest just going over to ESPN. That's what they do best. Break down games and give out stats. I'm here to tell you why this game is going "under" the number, and not "over." Both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford will need their respective run games to be established throughout this contest to have any success themselves. This game is going to be won and lost in the trenches. Field position and ball control will be paramount. Look for this clock to get eaten quickly and for this total to stay well under what I believe to be a sky-high total attached to this one!
Ben Burns: WILDCARD O/U BEST OF BEST *OFF 7-1 SUNDAY
Both regular season meetings finished above the total. Likewise, both teams saw last week's game finish above the number. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they're helping to provide us with an extra high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Prior to the game against Seattle, the Cards had seen three straight games fall below the total. They scored 12, 16 and 25 points. Its not a coincidence that the offense started struggling right after Hopkins went down. As of this writing, as per ESPN's Adam Schefter, he "could be back for the NFC Championship but it would be unrealistic for him to return any sooner." (Even if he somehow did manage to return, its hard to imagine him being 100%.) Having lost that game against the Hawks, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that Arizona failed to cover its previous game. Note that the Cards run the ball more regularly than many realize. They rank #7th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. They'll be doing everything they can to establish the run to help keep their hosts' offense off the field. The Rams (27-24) game against the 49'ers went to OT. That marked the fifth straight time that they've scored 30 or less. Having allowed Garoppolo to throw for 314 yards, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that the Rams had allowed their previous opponent to gain 250 or more yards through the air. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
The Insiders Room: 10* MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL SPECIAL ($25!)
These divisional playoff matchups are always interesting. The Cards finished 11-6 and the Rams were 12-5.
Arizona lost four of its last five games and struggled with its offense without star WR DeAndre Hopkins in the mix. For Kyler Murray to be successful tonight, he'll need his defense and special teams to be "on point" as usual, but the Cardinals will also have to establish the run game throughout.
The Rams won five of their last six games, due to a vastly improved and completely underrated defense.
While both regular-season games went OVER the number (they went 1-1 in the season series), the "grudge match" definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair.
Al McMordie: BIG AL's NFL MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF MONTH
These two teams played high scoring games in the regular season, with each team scoring 30+ points in a road victory. But this is the playoffs, not the regular season, and I expect a much better game today on the defensive side of the football. And the Rams, especially, have tightened things up defensively following their mid-season three game losing streak. Los Angeles gave up 28, 31 and 36 points in those defeats, and were being roundly criticized. But since hitting that rock-bottom level, the Rams have gone 5-1, with their only loss coming in overtime. And they have given up just 18.16 ppg in this stretch. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 UNDER on turf, and 11-3 UNDER off a SU loss.
Spread Knowledge: NFL Excellent Machine Grade value***A+***
Total Under picks are 20-6-0 when playing as the home/away team since 2019-02-03 with a profit of +13 units
Total Under picks are 22-9-1 when the game total line is larger than the current game total since 2003-12-14 with a profit of +12 units
Total Under picks are 23-10-1 as the favorite since 2019-09-15 with a profit of +11 units
Sean Murphy: 10* NFL TOP WILD CARD O/U [68-49 RUN]
As much as we'd all like to see an entertaining, back-and-forth shootout to close out Wild Card weekend, I don't think we're going to get it when the Cards and Rams match up for the third time this season on Monday night. The Arizona offense is a shadow of its former self right now. It seems like an eternity ago that the Cards boatraced the Rams in a 37-20 stunner here at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. Let's face it, the Cards offense has been hamstrung since losing WE DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that TE Zach Ertz has essentially become the focal point of the passing game is telling. QB Kyler Murray has been running for his life most games (he was sacked five times against Seattle last week). Now he faces a Rams defense that has seemingly figured him out, holding him to just eight all-purpose touchdowns in six career matchups not to mention a very pedestrian 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The last time these two teams met Murray had the benefit of facing a Rams defense that was without Jalen Ramsey due to Covid protocols. With all of that being said, there is a path for the Cards to stay competitive in this game and that involves effectively shortening it by running the football (both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are apparently good to go health-wise) and playing smart, fundamentally-sound defense. Let's face it, the Cards defense wasn't good in last week's loss to the Seahawks. We know they're capable of better though and there is help on the way with J.J. Watt, Jordan Phillips and Marco Wilson expected back from injury. No Watt isn't the game-changer he once was, but his presence is a factor on this defense. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Cards have come off a game in which they allowed 30+ points, with that situation producing an average total of just 41.6 points. The 'under' is also an identical 12-4 in Arizona's last 16 road games and Los Angeles' last 16 home games with those games producing totals well below the number we're working with here.
Best of luck!
at covers experts
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