|-2.5 NW (-110) @ Fanduel|
Take Northwestern (#165)
After going 10-3, 7-6, 10-3 and 9-5 between 2015 and 2018, the bottom dropped out for Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats last year; a dismal 3-9 campaign. That included a 24-22 home loss to Purdue on a last second field goal. The Boilermakers had lost the previous five meetings against the Wildcats dating back to 2014. Four of those five losses came by a TD or more; three of them by comfortable double digit margins. In other words, Northwestern has been better than Purdue – last year’s loss was an aberration, as was the 2019 season.
Northwestern isn’t a 3-9 team this year – they’re rebuilt, revitalized and are off to a well deserved 3-0 start. Pat Fitzgerald’s defense has allowed just 12 points per game, ranked #7 in the country, and they are #3 in pass efficiency defense. They held Maryland to a single field goal. The Terps scored 40+ in their other two games. Nebraska moved the ball against them last week, but the Wildcats stiffened in the red zone, allowing only 13 points. And it’s certainly not like Jeff Brohm’s offense has given this defense fits in any recent meeting – Northwestern has consistently been able to execute their defensive gameplan against a spread offense like this.
Pat Fitzgerald on the Big 10 road is as good as it gets: 12-1 ATS in their last 13 tries; including nine SU wins, dating back to the start of the 2017 campaign. He’s got a veteran QB in grad transfer Peyton Ramsey; a three year starter at Indiana with plenty of Big 10 road experience. In fact, Ramsey won here last year with Indiana in a wild 44-41 double OT shootout; throwing for 337 yards and three TD’s while running for two more scores, all without an interception. Cheap price to lay with the superior team! Take Northwestern.