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Pick Details


MLB EVENT
May 4 2021 at 7:05 PM ET
Houston
at
New York
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Win (1000)
Pick
NYY (-119) @ pinnacle

 My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020 but snuck into the expanded playoff field. The Astros then went on a surge that didn't end until they lost Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays The Yankees went 33-27 last season and if not for the expanded playoff field, would have missed the postseason. New York swept Cleveland 2-0 in the wild card round but then lost Game 5 of the ALDS to the Rays.

The Yankees were on the "other side" of Houston's sign-stealing shenanigans in 2017, with the Astros continuing on to win their first World Series by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers. The teams were set to meet in New York in September, but the COVID-19 pandemic wiped away the original schedule and the clubs never met. This will be the teams' first meeting since that 2017 World Series. Both Houston and New York have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games, with the 15-13 Astros finding themselves second in the NL West (two games back of the A's) and the Yankees are 14-14 (2 1/2-games back of the Red Sox in the AL East / 4th of five teams).

The starting pitching matchup is Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.44 ERA) for Houston and Domingo German (2-2, 4.05 ERA). The Astros are 5-1 in Greinke's six starts in 2021 but he's coming off his shortest outing of the season last Wednesday when he took a no-decision against the Seattle Mariners, allowing four runs on four hits in four innings. He has a 4.56 ER in his last four starts and is 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 14 career starts vs the Yankees (teams are 6-8).

German was 18-4 for the Yankees when he was placed on administrative leave by MLB pending an investigation of suspected domestic violence on September 19, 2019. It was confirmed on Sep 25 that he would not be eligible to participate in any baseball action for the remainder of 2019, including the postseason, German made just ONE start in 2020. German. He takes the mound for the fifth time in 20212 tonight. He lost his first two outings (12 hits and seven ERs allowed in seven innings for 9.00 ERA) but he's 2-0 in his last two starts, allowing just two ERs over 13 innings for a 1.38 ERA. In fact, he enters Tuesday with a 12-inning scoreless streak.

I'm not saying German is the same pitcher who had a MLB-best .818 winning percentage back in 2019 but his last two starts seem to point to him rounding back into form. Expect more than a few 'Bronx Cheers' from the Yankee-faithful (limited capacity) and for German to win his individual 'battle' vs Greinke.

Good luck...Larry

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