|Under 211.5 (-112) @ Fanduel|
10* Under Knicks/Mavericks (9:30 ET): The surprising Knicks have won four straight and are on an even longer ATS win streak of seven games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which is not something I saw coming at the start of the season. But their underlying metrics suggest there is nothing phony about this. Key to their success under HC Tom Thibodeau is the fact the Knicks are #1 in the NBA in points allowed as they are giving up only 104.3 per game. On average, their games are the lowest scoring in the entire league at 209.9 PPG.
Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency a year ago, but not in 2020-21 as they are down to 10th in that category. On Wednesday night, the Mavs won a game that they badly needed. Luka Doncic capped a fourth quarter rally with a “lucky” last second shot to defeat Memphis 114-113. Unfortunately, that shot cost me a winning Under ticket. But all the Mavs care about is they are now within one game of Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. I do believe they’ll pass the Blazers by season’s end and thus avoid the “play-in round” that they’ve been so critical of.
While this is a low total, that shouldn’t be all that surprising with the Knicks involved. Also, Dallas has failed to score 100 points twice in its last five games. Over the past month, the most points allowed by the Knicks in regulation is 114. They’ve held eight opponents under 100 during that time and only four (out of 16) have been able to top 102. The Mavs’ scoring average decreases at home (down to 109.8 PPG) and the Under is 10-1 L11 home games. When these teams played two weeks ago, the final score was 99-86 (Dallas won). 10* Under Knicks/Mavericks