My play is on Cinncinati.

Anytime you get two TDs in your pocket, for an undefeated team that averages almost 40pts per game and only allows 16.8 pts against this season, you have to take it, despite the lure of the Nick Saban romance narrative that most of the public is wrapped up in.

Bama's lone loss was against Texas A and M, a three point loss, where they failed to cover 18.5 and have lost two of their last three games ATS where in those losses they failed to cover over twenty points.

Bama was a pedestrian 7-6 ATS this season, and are coming off an emotional victory of rival Georgia where they came in as the dog by six points, the only game they were not favored this season. We see this opening playoff game as a let down opportunity for Cinncinati to capitalize from.

The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

Cinci is 6-0 ATS vs a team with a winning record.

Bearcats are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards on the ground in their previous game.

We will take the dogs with the points in hand.