|-4 DEN (-110) @ williamhill|
ASA top play on 10*: Denver Nuggets -4 over Miami Heat 10:10 PM ET - We have obviously been doing this for a very looooong time and one situation that has been profitable for us repeatedly is betting a team in their first game since losing a star player. The Nuggets suffered a huge blow when Jamaal Murray injured his knee late in their game Monday. Typically, what happens is that role player replacement rises to the occasion when they get extended minutes. The separator of great NBA players and say bench players is consistency. Monte Morris, Will Barton or Campazzo will step up and fill the Murray void for this game. There are other parts of this wager we like including an elite team like Denver coming off a bad loss on Monday to Golden State. The Nuggets also catch a scheduling break with the Heat coming off a game last night and playing their 5th game in just nine days. Unfortunately, the Heat also lost last night (1-5 ATS L6 following a double-digit loss) but the lack of rest in the higher altitude of Denver will be an issue. Miami is just 8-12 ATS against winning teams, 3-6 ATS when a dog of 4.5-points or less versus anyone. Denver is 18-10 SU at home with the 7th best average point differential in the league at +5.5PPG. The Nuggets are 6-1 SU their last seven at home and get an 8-point home win here, even without Murray.