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Pick Details

MIL
at
PHI
(905) Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia (906) 7:05 PM | Tue, May 04 2021
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Win (1000)
Pick
PHI (-147) @ pinnacle

#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -145 over Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - When lines first came out on this match-up they were as high as -190 and now, as of mid-day Tuesday, the line is down to a -145.  Part of the reason for that is suspension of Phillies reliever Alvarado and the questionable status of Bryce Harper for this game.  But the Phillies have a huge edge pitching edge here with Aaron Nola over Eric Lauer.  There is some additional value here because Lauer showed an impressive stat line in his start against the Dodgers and that was his first of the season.  However, Lauer gave up harder contact than you see from just glancing at a box score and this is a guy who struggled badly in spring training.  Also, last season was his first with the Brewers and the lefty went winless with a 13.09 ERA in his 4 appearances - 2 starts.  Lauer's last full season in the majors was 2019 and he had a 5.99 ERA on the road.  The year before was his rookie season and opponents hit .297 against him in road outings  The Phillies Nola, on the other hand, is a proven starting hurler known for dominating at home.  He now has a combined 29-10 record in his home starts since 2017.  Here are Nola's earned run averages at home starting with this season and back to 2017: 1.37, 2.50, 2.91, 2.34, and 2.98.  This is amazing consistency and, indeed, Nola is a model of consistency year in and year out when he is on his home mound.  He gives the Phillies a huge starting pitching edge here and, with Vince Velazquez giving the Phillies 6 innings last night, the bullpen is in decent shape for this one even without Alvarado.  Also, the last home start for Nola was a 9-inning shutout.  This is a mound mismatch and Philadelphia is 10-6 at home this season.  The Brewers have been a solid road club early this year but the pitching factor is too much for them to overcome in this one.  We will grab the home team at a very reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet PHILADELPHIA -145

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