|MIL (-132) @ pinnacle|
3 of 3 (100%) Experts with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 9* play on the Milwaukee Brewers (Straight-up).
Matt Fargo: Fargo's 10* MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot
Milwaukee has been on a tough stretch of late as it is 4-6 over its last 10 games and the Brewers are now two games ahead of the Cardinals for first place in the National League Central. Milwaukee is 11-5 at home and are ranked No. 6 in runs scored and No. 6 in OPS despite a recent run of scoring three runs or less in four of its last five games. The pitching has been just as good as the Brewers are No. 3 in BAA and send ace Corbin Burnes who has backed up his Cy Young season with a great start as he has a 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through seven starts including six straight quality outings where he has a 53:5 K:BB ratio. The Brewers are 65-26 in their last 91 games against with a losing record. The Braves snapped a two-game losing streak with the win on Tuesday and the early season has been a big disappointment for the defending World Series champions as they are 17-20 and remains seven games behind the Mets in the National League East. The offense has struggled to a .224 batting average which is near the bottom of baseball and they are ranked No. 24 in runs allowed per nine innings at 4.56. Atlanta is 7-9 on the road and send Max Fried to the hill who has been solid and is keeping this number in check. The Braves are 1-4 in their last five games against right-handed starters. Here, we play against road teams hitting.215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 over his last five starts. This situation is 55-16 (77.5 percent) over the last five seasons.
Al McMordie: BIG AL's RED-HOT MLB 3-GAME PACKAGE
It's still early in the season, but it would appear the leading candidate for the Rodney Dangerfield award -- a pitcher who gets the least respect from his hitters and bullpen -- would be the Brewers' Corbin Burnes. Last year's NL Cy Young winner has been brilliant once again but has little to show for it. In seven starts covering just under 46 innings, Burnes has posted a microscopic 1.77 ERA with a league-leading 0.79 WHIP and 57 strikeouts, but has logged a won-lost record of just 1-2. Just how bad has his run support been lately? In Burnes' last four starts, the Brewers have managed a total of six runs. And this from an offense that averages almost 4.8 runs per game so far and on separate occasions this season has plated 18, 12, 11 (twice) and 10 runs. Burnes knows that the wins will come if he just keeps doing what he's best at -- getting hitters out. The Braves are 1-4 in their last five games vs. a RH starter while the Brewers are 16-7 in their last 23 games as a favorite.
Professional Sports Picks: 33-13 (72%) Run - Early MLB Platinum Play
Our models suggest that the value is on the Brewers in the rubber match of this three-game set. Milwaukee right-hander Corbin Burnes (1-2, 1.77 ERA) has allowed a total of only six runs over his last six starts. Atlanta left-hander Max Fried (4-2, 3.14 ERA) gave up four runs on nine hits in an 11-6 team loss to San Diego in his last start. This is a revenge game for Burnes and the Brew Crew after losing to Fried and the Braves on May 7.
Best of luck!
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