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Pick Details

(461) Green Bay vs. Indianapolis (462) 4:25 PM | Sun, Nov 22 2020
Sport: NFL | Star Rating: 8.0 Evaluation: Loss (-880) - Final Score IND 34 at GB 31
2 GB (-110) @ Draftkings

8* Take Green Bay (#461)

There’s a narrative in the betting marketplace surrounding this game that I’m not buying at all.  The sharp $$ poured in on Indy when this line opened last Sunday Night for two reasons.  First, the Colts statistical profile on defense looks very impressive on paper: #1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed; Top 5 in yards per play allowed against both the run and the pass.  Second, the last time we saw Green Bay go on the road against a quality stop unit they got annihilated on national TV in a four TD loss at Tampa Bay.

Yes, Indy’s defensive stats are impressive.  But make no mistake about it – the Colts have been feasting on the weak.  They’ve had the Jags, Jets and Bears on the slate already, arguably the three weakest offenses in the league.  They got Minnesota when their offensive line was in shambles and the Lions when Matthew Stafford couldn’t practice all week.  Last week, they got the Titans with limited prep time and took advantage of multiple special teams miscues to make the final score look impressive. 

The Colts defense was gashed in Cleveland by the Browns.  Joe Burrow threw for 313 yards against them when they faced the Bengals.  Lamar Jackson couldn’t move the football last Sunday Night against the Patriots, but he moved the ball pretty well against Indy, guiding the Ravens to a two TD road win on this field.  And the Colts haven’t seen an elite offense all year – not one – like the one they’re going to see on Sunday.  Plain and simple – this is an overrated Colts defense: good, but not elite.

Green Bay is a great regular season team under Matt LaFleur: 13-3 last year and 7-2 this year.  They’ve won road games SU at Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Detroit, Minnesota, Houston, New Orleans and San Francisco during that span.  Yes, the Packers looked lethargic at home against the Jags last week.  And yes, they did have that one bad game at Tampa.  I want my money ON Green Bay off a shoddy showing like they had vs the Jaguars.  And, after playing in nasty conditions at home last week, Aaron Rodgers quote about playing indoors on turf this week: “I’m looking forward to it.  I really am.”

But even more importantly than that, the Packers have finally gotten healthy on offense, a team that is capable of outscoring anyone in the league.  WR Allen Lazard was activated off IR and he’s been practicing all week.  Devonte Adams has an ankle injury, but he’s expected to play.  All pro left tackle David Bakhtiari returned to the lineup last week.  Their RB corps is healthy too – even AJ Dillon could be active this week, to complement Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.  Despite all the injuries, this offense ranks #6 in yards and #2 in points in the NFL.  Expect Indy to be outclassed.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Packers.


What does ‘Star Rating’ mean?
Star Rating is the number of units the handicapper is risking on the bet. Therefore, if the Star Rating is 7.0, it is a 7-unit pick. On plus odds picks, the handicapper is risking their Star Rating unit amount. On negative odds picks, the handicapper is betting enough to win their Star Rating unit amount.
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