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Pick Details

RBC Heritage 8:00 AM | Thu, Apr 15 2021
Sport: PGA | Star Rating: 6.0 Evaluation: Loss (-600)
100 (True) - Pre-Tournament Futures @ Multiple Sportsbook

This week the regular PGA Tour resumes, and for those players in action at Augusta, they don't have too far to travel.

The US golfing roadshow pitches-up in Hilton Head, on the South Carolina coast, just North of the city of Savannah for the RBC HERITAGE.

A chance for those golfers not playing last week to make their mark, or for a number of big names who bombed-out at the Masters to rediscover their form.

There's always an interesting back-story to this tournament!

Here's a preview of the action in the "Palmetto State"...

The Tournament - "The Heritage" was first held in 1969. At that time it was billed as a late-season event, being played in either October or November, but in 1973 it moved to April, and then in 1983 became a regular feature the week after the US Masters - only moving to June last year on account of the pandemic. Normally, because of its proximity to Augusta there tends to be a solid turn-out from those who competed the previous week, plus those who didn't make the grade at the first Major of the year. It's another pretty strong line-up again this year as many top golfers just want to play again after failing to fire at Augusta. As one of the five annual events given "invitational" status the Heritage has a slightly reduced field of 132 (as opposed to the PGA Tour standard of 156).

The Course - The Harbour Town Links course at the Sea Pines Resort in Hilton Head was designed by Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus. It's on the coast and is regarded as one of the most picturesque venues in the States. The course plays 7,099 yards and is a par 71. Scoring can be good if the conditions set fair (which they look to be for most of this week).

72-Hole Record - 262, Webb Simpson (2020)

18-Hole Record - 61, Troy Merritt (2015)

Past Winners - Webb Simpson (2020), CT Pan (2019), Satoshi Kodaira (2018), Wesley Bryan (2017), Branden Grace (2016).

The Field - A reduced field of 132 golfers are here this week. Dustin Johnson heads the market at +1000.

The Weather - Possibly a little wet this week, with some rain around the region (40%-10%-40%-30% chance of precipitation each of the four days). But the wind is benign at speeds under 10mph, and temperatures a little cool for the season, just hitting the low 70's. But still, pretty decent conditions for the players.

The Bets - There are six bets ranging from +6000 to +20000.

Here are the details...


Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +6000 Caesars
Top 10 Odds: +450 William Hill, FanDuel

"Hoffman has well and truly put a poor 2020 behind him, and he's hit the ground running in 2021. Since his 7th place at the AT&T Pebble Beach back in February, he hasn't missed a cut, and has two more Top 10's at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a runner-up finish last time out in Texas. His strokes gained numbers are mega-impressive, especially his approach play. Hoffman hasn't ranked outside the Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach on his last four measured starts. On his last start at the Texas Open, Hoffman ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, and if he continues to play superbly from tee-to-green, he'll definitely be a factor at a course when accurate tee shots, and impressive irons, are what are needed to succeed. Although his record at Harbour Town isn't great, Hoffman does have two Top 10's to his name, and if he brings the same level of ball-striking here this week to what he showed in Texas, the "Hoff" can definitely be a factor at a juicy price."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +8000 Bet365
Top 10 Odds: +650 DraftKings

"European, and European Tour-based, players have a great at Harbour Town because, unlike the majority of US courses, this one can't be overpowered. The fairways are tiny, with tall trees lining the fairway, just like you would see at many European Tour venues. Step forward Matt Wallace, who has taken well to life on the PGA Tour. Wallace is a multiple European Tour winner, and definitely see's himself as a big fish in a small pond when playing on the other side of the Atlantic. Recently he finished 3rd in the Texas Open, where he played superbly all four days, but was just pipped by Jordan Spieth, and then played nicely again at Augusta where he finished 34th. He's clearly playing some great golf right now, and should take a shining to this venue, so I was surprised to see plenty of +8000 quotes around this week. He definitely has the game to win any event in world golf and looks a cracking play this week."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +9000 Bet365, FanDuel, Caesars
Top 10 Odds: +700 FanDuel, DraftKings

"Glover has been trending in the right direction these last few months with progressive form figures of 66-48-19-4. With that 4th at TPC San Antonio being extremely impressive. Glover is known for his excellent long game, with good driving and classy iron play the main features of his game. His putting, however, ranges from average to abysmal, and it's always a case of trying to catch Glover when the putter is behaving! Glover's putting lately has actually been decent by his standards, with his best effort coming at the Honda Classic, where he ranked 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting, which for him is as good as it gets. Last time out in Texas Glover also gained strokes on the field on his way to 4th, but it was his long game that shone that week. Glover has plenty of course experience and know-how when it comes to Harbour Town, and has only finished worse than 33rd once in the last six years. All things considered, I was expecting a price a lot shorter than the +9000. He's a classy operator, whose game is trending right now, and he's very well suited to this week's test - therefore he easily makes the staking plan."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +15000 Caesars
Top 10 Odds: +1400 DraftKings

"Snedeker has been quite dreadful for the majority of 2021, but last time out in Texas he found his mojo again, finishing 6th, and striping his irons which are often the weakness in his game. His best result prior to the Texas Open this year was at the Farmers Insurance Open, which tells a story in itself, as Snedeker has a great record there and obviously found playing at a venue he knows and loves hugely beneficial to his game. This week he returns to a course he won at back in 2011, and has other solid finishes in 2017 (11th) and 2018 (17th) more recently. Snedeker, while by no means the straightest or best iron player, has forged an excellent career on being one of the best putters in the world, and while this part of his game has deserted him for large parts of this season, his Strokes Gained: Putting numbers are finally on the rise again, and it's this reason, coupled with his recent approach play and love for the course, why I think he's worth backing at a huge price this week... to maintain that form, and make it back-to-back good weeks for the first time in ages."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +12000 Betvictor
Top 10 Odds: +1100 William Hill, FanDuel

"Knox definitely fits the mold of players who should thrive around Harbour Town, so it's no surprise to see that he finished no worse than 18th in his first four starts here between 2014 and 2017. He's an accurate driver, and solid iron player, and has the tools to thrive here. He fits the European Tour narrative here too, and it looked like he had turned a corner at the start of 2021 with his game, but since then he's regressed in terms of results, and is well out of form currently. Despite missing his last two cuts, Knox has actually gained over three strokes on the field from tee-to-green in just two rounds at both the Honda Classic and Texas Open. So while his putting is of huge concern, his long game is actually in great shape. Therefore, he's a player who fits the profile here, fits the profile, and is actually playing great from tee-to-green which is why at well over +10000 he's worth getting onside to surprise a few this week."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +20000 Bet365, Betvictor
Top 10 Odds: +2200 DraftKings

"The last man to make the staking plan is Ben Martin, who has found himself in the middle of a mini purple-patch at the minute, and who has the perfect game to do well at Harbour Town. Martin was 9th at the Corales Puntacana, and 34th in Texas last time out, where his all-round game looked to be in great shape. He's an exceptionally straight driver of the ball, which will bode very well this week, and it's no surprise to see he has a 3rd place finish to his name back in 2014. Martin has been floating between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour in recent years, and a big week here, at the ideal venue for his game, will solve any tour membership problems he currently has. He's playing well enough to better his odds of +20000, and looks definite value this week to spring a surprise."


What does ‘Star Rating’ mean?
Star Rating is the number of units the handicapper is risking on the bet. Therefore, if the Star Rating is 7.0, it is a 7-unit pick. On plus odds picks, the handicapper is risking their Star Rating unit amount. On negative odds picks, the handicapper is betting enough to win their Star Rating unit amount.
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