Pick Details

(327) Purdue vs. Minnesota (328) 7:30 PM | Fri, Nov 20 2020
Sport: NCAAF | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Loss (-1160)
PUR (-116) @ pinnacle

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers Money Line (-115) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - This line (ATS) was a -3 on Purdue earlier this week but has dropped down to as low as a 1.5 as of early Friday morning and that is why I am recommending a play on the money line because that is now available in the -115 range after this line move! I understand the move as there are rumors that QB Aidan O'Connell is a game-time decision for this one. Keep in mind the Boilermakers still have former starting QB Jack Plummer available and O'Connell barely beat him out for the starting job heading into this season. Also, O'Connell is coming off a rough game with some poor decision-making and did not have great touch on some of his throws. In other words a QB change here wouldn't even be the worst thing in the world. Teams can run all over the Golden Gophers so they don't throw much against them as a general rule but that doesn't mean their pass defense is great. In fact, Minnesota is next to last in the Big Ten in yards allowed per completion at 8.8 yards and also rank in the bottom half of the Big Ten for pass defense efficiency. As for the rush defense, it is horrible. Yes Purdue doesn't tend to run a lot but don't be surprised if you see a little extra from 6'5 230 lb Zander Horvath. He struggled against Northwestern last week but also gained 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 ypc) against a very tough Iowa defense a few weeks prior to that. Purdue is averaging 307 yards per game through the air and will enjoy success both on the ground and with the aerial attack against a very bad Minnesota defense which, other than when facing a team with a 4th string QB (Illinois), has allowed 43 points per game this season! The Boilermakers are allowing just 23.7 points per game this season. The Golden Gophers are scoring an average of only 15.5 points per game at home this season. Minnesota just lost by 28 to the same Iowa team which Purdue defeated last month. This is also a revenge game for the Boilermakers as they lost at home to the Golden Gophers last season and got blasted in their last visit to Minnesota. Also, while the Boilers have "only" Rutgers on deck, the Gophers have a revenge game against rival Wisconsin up next. Last season, the Badgers beat Minny in the regular season finale which cost the Golden Gophers a spot in a chance in the Big Ten Championship Game and ultimately a potential shot at a Rose Bowl berth. Both teams enter this game off a loss here but you can see why I feel the road team is not only the better team but also will be the more focused team in this match-up. 10* PURDUE money line -115


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