|3 POR (-110) @ caesars|
9* Take Portland (#560)
I’ve been using this same basic write-up to bet against the Milwaukee Bucks when they face good teams for the better part of the last month. Here’s a cut and paste from my last anti-Bucks write-up from their loss against the Clippers earlier on this road trip. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities:
Here's a list of NBA teams that are currently at least five games Over .500: Milwaukee, Philly, Brooklyn, Utah, the Lakers, Phoenix, the Clippers, Denver and Portland. You can make a case that Dallas and Boston deserve to be on the ‘good list’ as well, despite their mediocre records – both squads have dealt with injuries, but are legit contenders to win a playoff series.
That’s 11 good teams—the rest of the league is mediocre or weak. Milwaukee is one of those 11 ‘good’ teams, so there are only 10 others that they could have faced. Against those ten other ‘good’ teams this season the Bucks have consistently fallen short: 3-12 ATS in 15 previous tries, including a 1-7 ATS mark in their last eight. Even that lone ‘W’ comes with an asterisk – they trailed in that game by margin before a 9-0 closeout over the last three minutes.
Portland is returning home off a successful road trip; not normally a ‘bet-on’ spot. But this is a surging team right now, with Norm Powell fitting right in and Jusef Nurkic back as the starting center. Milwaukee embarrassed this Blazers squad in February, a 134-106 annihilation, but it’s a very different Portland team they’ll face tonight. Live dog here! Take the Blazers.
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