|DM (-124) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Daniil Medvedev v Rafael Nadal
Pick: 8* Medvedev Moneyline
Medvedev trails the head-to-head 0-3, but the past two meetings have been extremely close while Medvedev's game continues to get stronger.
Medvedev led Nadal 5-1 in the third set at this event last year, he also had match points before he collapsed mentally, I don't expect him to waste such an opportunity again.
Medvedev's backhand is rock solid, capable of neutralising Nadal's forehand and he has the gamestyle & fitness to play prolonged rallies, these indoor conditions suit his flatter ball striking.
Nadal struggles with lower bouncing balls due to his extreme forehand grip, the shot is suited to clay courts where the ball bounces higher and he has more time on the shot, he's rushed in these conditions.
Nadal has been solid this week but he beat Rublev (dreadful matchup), lost to Thiem and needed three sets against a physically struggling Tsitsipas, he only has one indoor title and his game naturally struggles in these conditions.
Medvedev has played his best tennis of the season over the past three weeks, winning the title in Paris and is yet to drop a set in London, beating Zverev, Djokovic & Schwartzman, expect him to reach the final. Medvedev Moneyline.