|4.5 GP (-106) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Kei Nishikori v Guido Pella
Pick: 8* Guido Pella +4.5 Games
Pella has struggled in his return from an injury layoff but his level is improving and he has crucial surface warmth, something Nishikori will be lacking in his first match on clay in six months.
Nishikori's game naturally struggles on slower, higher bouncing courts, he struggles to generate his own pace while his serve isn't as effective on clay.
Pella has the natural lefty clay court game to cause him nightmares, Nishikori has lost to Bellucci, Klizan, Ramos & Verdasco on clay before, all these players are natural lefties who thrive on clay, Nishikori would beat any of them on a hard court.
Neither player will come in with huge confidence, this spread is far too big for Nishikori to cover, expect Pella to keep this match close. Pella +4.5 Games