3 of 3 (100%) Experts with a pick against the spread are aligned. 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles (Spread).

Capper Analysis:

Ben Burns: FRIDAY SWEET SPOT! ($42,710 MLB RUN)

With the Sox favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the O's for a relatively reasonable price. Though we may not need them, with five of Boston's last eight game being decided by a single run, the extra +1.5 runs could prove invaluable. Hill has a 4.85 ERA and 1.615 WHIP on the season. The Sox lost his last two starts and he has yet to complete five full innings. Obviously, Hill is getting up their in years. Bradish, on the other hand, is a highly rated prospect. Though this is his first big league start, he checks in full of confidence, having compiled a 1.20 ERA in three Triple-A starts this season. Happy to be home, look for the O's to provide Bradish with some runs, en route to AT LEAST the 'run-line cover.'

Spread Knowledge: MLB Excellent Machine Grade value ***A***

Baltimore Orioles picks are 28-19-0 as the underdog since 2021-08-31 with a profit of +11 units
Baltimore Orioles picks are 28-20-0 when playing opponent has a losing record in the last 10 games since 2021-08-25 with a profit of +9 units
Baltimore Orioles picks are 23-15-0 when the game time is later then 5pm eastern standard time since 2021-08-25 with a profit of +7 units

Power Sports: RUN LINE POWER-SMASH *SPECIAL*

First off, please note that this is a RUN LINE selection where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. It was obviously not a good series vs. the Yankees for the O’s as they lost all three games by three or more runs. But returning to Camden Yards to face the Red Sox is a far more favorable matchup. Boston is closer to Baltimore in the AL East standings than they are to any of the top three teams. The Red Sox also failed to score yesterday, which was the 7th time in the L10 games they were held to two runs or fewer. The home team will do no worse than a one-run loss in tonight’s series opener.

Now one-run games have not been kind to the Red Sox thus far as they’ve lost five of them so far (tied for most in all of MLB) including four in just the last eight games. Yesterday was the latest as they fell 1-0 in Toronto, a game they ended up with just four hits. Boston lost three of four overall in that series and could again be without designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who also missed yesterday’s contest. The starting pitcher for tonight will be veteran southpaw Rich Hill, who has yet to make it through five full innings and the end result is a 1.615 WHIP. I think Baltimore can get to him.

The Orioles will counter Hill with one of their top prospects, Kyle Bradish, who is making his big league debut. I like the spot given Boston’s recent struggles at the plate. Plus the Red Sox are unfamiliar with Bradish, who allowed just four runs in three starts for Triple-A Norfolk to start the season. On the flip side, the O’s are quite familiar with Hill. Though they ended up being swept in NY, the O’s outhit the Yankees yesterday, only to be undone by FIVE errors in the field. They’ll play cleaner today and also have the edge over Boston when it comes to the bullpen. O’s relievers have a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home.