|DT (150) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem
Pick: 8* Thiem Moneyline
Thiem has constantly caused Nadal problems on outdoor hard courts, losing a tight five set marathon in New York in 2018 before beating him in Melbourne on his way to the Australian Open final in January.
Thiem's serve & heavy groundstrokes are very difficult for Nadal to defend against, he doesn't have the strongest return game and Thiem can win cheap points/dictate from the first ball when serving.
Nadal's return problems will be even greater indoors where the ball bounces lower/moves through the air faster, he uses an extreme grip to create heavy topspin with his forehand and can be rushed in his preparation in these conditions.
Both players are more natural clay courters but Nadal's head-to-head record on clay v Thiem has been incorrectly priced into this contest, indoor courts are completely different to clay, expect the underdog to win. Thiem Moneyline.