Pick Details

(477) Philadelphia vs. Dallas (478) 4:25 PM | Sun, Dec 27 2020
Sport: NFL | Star Rating: 8.0 Evaluation: Win (800) - Final Total 54
Over 49.5 (-110) @ williamhill

8* Take Dallas – Philadelphia OVER (#477-478)

Here’s an excerpt from what I wrote about the Eagles defense last week; cashing a winning bet against Philadelphia for myself & my clients:

“Philly’s injury bug just keeps getting worse.  Three fourths of their starting secondary limped off the field last week.  Avonte Maddox won’t play on Sunday; Rodney McCloud will miss the rest of the season, while Darius Slay and Michael Jacquet were both limited in practice on Thursday.  DT Malik Jackson is still in concussion protocol.  LB TJ Edwards doesn’t look on track to return to the field on Sunday.  Safety Grayland Arnold is very questionable as well.  Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz: “You’re always trying to cover up injuries…I don’t think you ever plan for 75% of the guys going down.  You just have to do the best you can.”

Philly’s defense injury report doesn’t look a whole lot better this week, with pass rushing stud Josh Sweat already ruled out and replacement cornerback Kevon Seymour questionable at best – they’re talking about calling up guys from the practice squad to start, once again.  Kyler Murray enjoyed a career high in passing yards against this defense last week, and Arizona won the game and covered the spread despite a -3 turnover margin; a clear indicator of the Eagles defensive weakness.  It’s surely worth noting that punter Cameron Johnson is hurt as well, significant because Doug Pederson likes to go for it on fourth down anyway, exactly what Over bettors are looking for.

The Cowboys defense is pretty hopeless at this stage of the campaign.  A bad 49ers offense gained 458 yards and hung 33 points on them last week; the third time in the last four weeks that Dallas has been gashed for 33 points or more.  Don’t expect that defense to be much better this week; not with safety Xavier Woods, DT Antwaun Woods and LB Leighton Vander Esch all downgraded to doubtful on the latest injury report.

Jalen Hurts has looked good in back-2-back weeks, giving the Eagles offense a real spark, both running and passing; the first QB in NFL HISTORY with more than 500 passing yards and more than 150 rushing yards in his first two career starts.  Andy Dalton has averaged more than seven yards per pass attempts over the last two weeks, without throwing an interception, with Dallas getting into the 30’s in both games.  Expect a shootout in a game between two stop units that don’t get many red zone stops these days.  Take the OVER.


What does ‘Star Rating’ mean?
Star Rating is the number of units the handicapper is risking on the bet. Therefore, if the Star Rating is 7.0, it is a 7-unit pick. On plus odds picks, the handicapper is risking their Star Rating unit amount. On negative odds picks, the handicapper is betting enough to win their Star Rating unit amount.
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