Pick Details

GB
at
IND
(461) Green Bay vs. Indianapolis (462) 4:25 PM | Sun, Nov 22 2020
Sport: NFL | Star Rating: 9.0 Evaluation: Loss (-963) - Final Score IND 34 at GB 31
Pick
2.5 GB (-107) @ pinnacle

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Packers opened the season 4-0 SU & ATS and while it hasn't been a smooth ride, Green Bay 7-2 is tied with New Orleans for the NFC' best record (note: San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans were all 13-3 last season, with the 49ers and Packers getting the No. 1 and No, 2 seeds, respectively due to tiebreakers). QB Aaron Rodgers has helped steer the Packers, despite various injuries to some of the team's most reliable playmakers. The Colts made a big 'splash' in the offseason by singing Philip Rivers as a free agent but the key to Indy's 6-3 record (tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South) has been a defense that ranks first in total yards (290.4 per game) and 4th in scoring (19.7 PPG). These two first place clubs square off Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Rodgers is again at "the top of his game," completing 67.8% for 2,578 yards for 2,578 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs (116.4 QB rating). RB Jones has dealt with injuries (he's missed two games) but he has 493 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC with five TDs, while catching 28 passes with two more TDs. WR Davante Adams missed practice Wednesday after tweaking a previously balky ankle in a Week 10 home win against Jacksonville, but indications are he will play against the Colts. In his seven games he's caught 61 balls with nine TDs on the season, after 38 catches with seven TDs in his last four games. Fellow WR Valdez-Scantling has a modest 22 catches (he hasn't missed a game) but he's averaging 21.0 YPC with four TDs. TE Tonyan has 27 catches and five TDs. Green Bay is averaging 30.8 PPG, with only Seattle and KC (each at 31.8 PPG) scoring more. The defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Rivers has provided a steady hand at QB but while he's completing 68.7% for 2,395 yards but his TD/INT ratio is a modest 11-7. Big things were expected from Wisconsin rookie Jonathan Taylor but he's got a modest 428 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC with four TDs. The Indy running game is averaging only 105.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Fellow RB Hines has just 177 yards on the ground but leads the team with 33 catches and with four TD receptions. WR Hilton has been banged up on-and-off this season and checks in with just 26 catches and not a single TD catch. WR Pascal has 28 catches (2 TDs) and TE Alie-Cox adds 20 catches and two TDs. As noted above, the Colts are where they are because of their D (see above for a reminder).

The Colts have beaten Green Bay's fellow NFC North 'partners' (Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota) but Green Bay is a 'horse of a different color!' The Packers are off an uninspiring 24-20 over hapless Jacksonville but that so-so effort should have them VERY focused on this game. Green Bay can 'sniff' the NFC's No. 1 seed, as after the Colts, Green Bay faces just ONE team with a current winning record (Titans in Week 16) over its final six games. As for the Colts, they come off a HUGE win at Tennessee in Week 10, moving them into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans. Indy's defense gets a real test against Rodgers and Co plus just could be peeking ahead to next week's home game with the Titans. I view this as the perfect situation for a Green By win. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

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