|Over 8 (-101) @ pinnacle|
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday.
We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night - even though that contest wasn't without its scoring opportunities. I look for a higher-scoring affair on Friday as the Padres send Joe Musgrove to the hill against Zach Thompson.
This play is actually more about the bullpens than anything else but more on that in a moment. Joe Musgrove has labored through his last four starts for the Padres, allowing 15 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has gone 3-1 over that stretch and has cashed in five of his last six starts overall. The Marlins haven't had any recent experience against Musgrove but do generally hit a shade better at home and against right-handed pitching this season.
My big issue with the Padres right now is their overworked bullpen. The San Diego 'pen has now logged well over 400 innings this season. While they've held up reasonably well on the whole, they enter tonight's action sporting a 4.05 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with only two saves converted and two blown over their last seven games so we are seeing some signs of wear.
Zach Thompson has been a terrific find for the Marlins, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 28 innings of work so far this season. With that being said, he doesn't tend to work deep into games, having gone more than five innings just twice in six starts. He's also been fortunate considering he has posted a 42% hard-hit ball percentage and his fly ball rate sits nearly 10% above the MLB average yet he's given up just one home run this season.
The Marlins have played seven games over the last six days with their bullpen logging over 40 innings along the way. Thanks to getting only one inning from last night's starter Anthony Bender they're in a tough spot here, noting that they've recorded a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over that stretch with just one save converted to go along with one blown. They've blown 11 saves while converting just 10 in night games this season. Take the over (10*).
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