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Pick Details


Serie A EVENT
May 3 2021 at 2:45 PM ET
Parma
at
Torino
Sport: Serie A | Star Rating: 8.0 Evaluation: Win (800)
Pick
TORG (-165) @ pinnacle

8* Torino (2:45 ET): Still fighting off the prospect of relegation, Torino is a club due a better fate. They’ve got a better YTD goal differential than the four sides directly ahead of them in the table. Understat has their expected point total at 39, which would have them 13th. But the reality of the matter is they’ve had poor luck throughout the Serie A campaign, are tied for 17th and only technically safe (from relegation) based on GD. Cagliari’s late goal against Napoli on Sunday did them no favors, but a win today could go a long way to bring Il Toro to safety as it would bring them three points clear and ahead of Cagliari. 

Parma’s fate is basically sealed at this point. They are 11 points adrift of safety and following a 4-3 loss to bottom of the table Crotone last week, Parma will almost certainly be heading back to Serie B next season. Four straight losses have all but guaranteed their relegation after three straight years in the Italian top flight. They were a middle of the table side in 2019/20, but this season has seen them score a league-low 36 goals while conceding the second most times (70). Only Crotone, who beat them last week, has a worse YTD goal differential. Parma has the fewest number of wins in Serie A (3) this season.

Incredibly, Parma has earned just 11 points against sides currently in the bottom half of the table this season. That’s easily the fewest - by six - in the entire league. Torino beat them 3-0 in the reverse fixture and has been playing better at home recently. Though it was a 2-0 loss to Napoli last week, prior to that Torino had an unbeaten run of three matches, which included wins over Roma and Udinese. Parma will deal with multiple absences Monday and this is honestly as winnable a match as Torino has had all season long. They are underpriced. 8* Torino

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