|Over 8 (-104) @ pinnacle|
10* Over Giants/Marlins (6:10 ET): Miami kicked off this series with a 4-1 win Friday. That’s far fewer total runs than what we saw in their previous series (against Atlanta) where the four games averaged 13.5 rpg. The Marlins won three of them, including two in extra innings. The offense has been far less spectacular at home this season, but I think it’s only a matter of time before they begin to “break out.” Same for the Giants, who are now 10-1 Under their L11 games. Nine of those 11 games have seen five or fewer totals runs scored. Seems unsustainable?
Starting today for the Marlins will be Sandy Alcantara. The Under is 3-0 in his 2021 starts and 7-1 his last eight starts going back to the end of last season. So again, I’m really “bucking” the trends here. But let it be known that Alcantara has allowed three runs each of his last two starts and he had a season-high three walks his last time out. He’s also long overdue for some run support after the Marlins have scored just seven total runs in his three starts this year.
The Giants’ offense is near the bottom of the league right now with just 3.4 runs per game. They had even less than that last night as there were only three hits outside of Mike Yastrzemski’sdouble and triple. But I think they’ll get going tonight. As for starter Aaron Sanchez, it’s been a long road back to relevancy. After missing all of 2020 and a 5.89 ERA in ‘19, I’m not sold on his start to this season, which has seen him give up just three runs in 10 IP. These teams are DUE for an Over. This is a low number. It’s that simple. 10* Over Giants/Marlins