|-7.5 USU (-110) @ Fanduel|
Utah State has won and covered 8 in a row. Neither game was pretty, but the recent 2 game sweep of San Diego State brought some validation to this run they're on.
Colorado State has some good young guards and is a solid squad, coming in at 10-2 here. However, in their 3 road games against above average teams this year (St Mary's, San Diego St x2) they were pretty shaky. While covid may have played in role in the ugly 53-33 loss to St Mary's (they had recently come off a covid disruption), they also fell into holes of 25+ in both games against SD St. Now of course, they came back from 26 down to freakin win one of those games, but the very next game they fell back into a 29 point hole before ultimately losing by 13. Certainly, knowing this team has the firepower to come back from 26 points down will make it harder than normal to feel secure if Utah State indeed goes up by 20. But in general, huge comebacks like that are rare, and Utah State is a better offensive team than SD St which should make it harder to come back. I believe the biggest reason for Colo State looking pretty vulnerable in the tougher road games is their high level of reliance on the 3. They're shooting a great 39+% on the season and ranked 10th nationally in highest % of overall points coming from made 3's. But tougher to make a high clip against strong defensive teams on the road (Utah State's defensive efficiency ranking is now up to 8th in the nation).
These teams each had a good amount of continuity from last year's squads so a lot of the same players are playing here, and USU swept the 2 games last year, winning the home game by 16.
One other point is I believe UTah State will look a lot better offensively here coming off the SD St games (only scored 0.89 and 0.94 points per possession in the 2 games against SD St's tough D). Colo State is largely a mediocre defensive team (ranked around 75th).
Given the propensity Colo St has shown to fall in a hole in tough road games this year, and given the nice streak Utah State has workin, I like Utah St's chances for a solid pullaway W tonight. If Colo State manages to go 16-32 from 3 or something so be it. Dont think it's that likely in this spot
Utah St -7.5