Pick Details

TEN
at
BAL
(465) Tennessee vs. Baltimore (466) 1:00 PM | Sun, Nov 22 2020
Sport: NFL | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Loss (-1100) - Final Score BAL 24 at TEN 30
Pick
-6 BAL (-110) @ Fanduel

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. That playoff run saw them win at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game. However, most thought of Tannehill as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. That's changed in 2020, as Tannehill has completed 64.8% for 2,128 yards with 20 TDs and three INTs (106.9 QB rating). Henry is having another strong season, running for 946 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs. That's all well and fine but after opening 5-0, the Titans have lost THREE of their last four. While Tannehill's numbers on the season remain very good, he's barely completed 50% of his passes (25 of 48) for an average of just 152.5 YPG in the team's last two games. He had completed 67.4% of his passes in his first seven games, averaging 244.0 YPG through the air. The Tennessee defense is also allowing almost SIX points per game more than last season, 26.1-to-20.7.

The Ravens opened the season 5-1, with their lone loss coming to the defending champion Chiefs. However, Baltimore has has lost TWO of its last three, falling at home to Pittsburgh 28-24 in Week 8 and 23-17 at New England in Week 10. Jackson is playing well, completing 64.0% for 1,762 yards with 14 TDs and five INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 524 yards on 5.8 YPC with three TDs. The running game is averaging a healthy 164.0 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 230 yards so far this season, as Edwards (370 yards) and Dobbins (310 yards) join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown has 32 catches, while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 53 catches. TE Andrews has a team-highs in catches (33) and TD receptions (six). The Baltimore D is allowing 18.3 PPG (17.6 LY) on 323.0 YPG (330.6 LY).

The Ravens HAVE to win this one and the extra bonus of "playoff revenge" makes me like the play even more. Let me review that playoff game from last year. Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-to-300 in yards and 29-15 in FDs. Jackson passed for 365 yards and ran for 143 but coughed up THREE turnovers and was 0 of 4 on fourth down attempts. If the Ravens can't win here, their season is effectively over.

Good luck...Larry

 

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