|BOS (-126) @ Fanduel|
Taking the Bruins for 10* here...
These two teams have had opposite starts to the season. The Bruins have played well but lost 2 of 3 games (1 in extra time), whereas the Flyers have not played well at all but have only lost 1 of 4 games.
Boston has generated 56.5% of expected goals so far this season at 5 on 5 (6th in the league) compared to only 42% for the Flyers (27th in the league). Bruins surprisingly have not yet scored a 5 on 5 goal despite generating nearly 5 expected goals. Flyers scored 10 goals at 5 on 5 despite only generating 6 expected goals. Basically, that tells us that the Bruins should score more goals than expected in the short term and the Flyers should score less goals than expected.
There's also a system that fits this play based on the extra day of rest the Bruins got (6% ROI and 58% over 1400 games).
We're getting significant value with the Bruins here as the general public is overrating the Flyers and underrating the Bruins due to the final scores and not looking any deeper.