|Under 208 (-110) @ Fanduel|
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.
We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series as the oddsmakers quite simply missed the mark with a total just north of 200 points. Now I believe the betting marketplace has overreacted the other way, pushing this total closer to 210 points. Game 1 saw undisciplined defensive efforts from both teams, leading to a combined 66 free throw attempts. I expect nothing of the sort in Game 2 on Thursday. Both teams are fully capable of playing tough defense without needing to foul on every other possession. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring contest in the series-opener, noting that the Celtics got off just 79 field goal attempts while the Heat got off only 80. Boston has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in three straight and five of its last seven games overall. On the flip side, however, the C's have held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals in eight straight games. You would have to go all the way back to Game 1 of the playoffs against Brooklyn to find the last time a C's opponent knocked down more than 41 field goals. The Heat have been even tougher defensively. They've limited nine consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in six of those nine games. Take the under (10*).
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