|BHA (-132) @ pinnacle|
10* Brighton & Hove Albion (3:00 ET): In terms of expected points vs. reality, Brighton & Hove Albion has to be considered the unluckiest team in all of the Premier League this season. The reality is that they currently sit 16th in the table, only seven points clear of relegation. That’s a really tough lot for a club whose “expected” point total is 52.97, which is actually FIFTH best in the whole EPL and nearly 19 points higher than their actual total. Not to mention their YTD goal differential (-5) is better than the four teams directly ahead of them in the table. But getting to face an already relegated side this week, it should be an easy three points for Brighton as they inch closer to safety.
Last week’s 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton (which I called) assured last place Sheffield United a fate we all knew was coming -- relegation. In terms of number of matches played, it equaled the fastest relegation for any side in Premier League history. At one point, it looked as if they might set a new EPL record for fewest points in a season. They avoided that, but not relegation as last week’s loss was their fifth in a row and 26th this campaign (eight more than the next worst team). United has scored only 17 goals all season (in 32 matches) and has now been kept clean a shocking 18 different times, including last week.
Coming off back to back goalless draws, Brighton clearly knows what it’s like to not score as well. But they should break out here against the second worst defensive side in the entire EPL. United has kept only two clean sheets all season. Brighton has actually kept three clean sheets in their previous four fixtures. The two straight 0-0 draws aren’t all bad as they came against a pair of top eight sides (Chelsea & Everton). This should be among the easiest three points of the season for Brighton as Sheffield has no motivation left after being assured of relegation. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion