|VAN (133) @ pinnacle|
Taking the Canucks for 5* here...
This line is way too high as I see these teams being relatively similar in skill level. Lots of recency bias with the Flames significantly outplaying the Canucks last game. However, that was a bad spot for Vancouver -- Flames were rested and Canucks played 3 games in 4 nights. They're still playing their 4th game in 6 nights but it isn't quite as bad. Especially with that little extra revenge motivation that we've been witnessing around the league this season with the altered schedules.
These two teams have relatively similar expected goals numbers. The Canucks have a slight edge at 47% at 5 on 5 this season compared to 45.5% for the Flames. But we're not going to read too much into that since it's so early in the season.
There are some system plays that work in the Canucks favor, namely, visitors that are significant underdogs (10% ROI over 1500 games) and underdogs on a 4+ game road trip (16% ROI over 450 games). These two strategies + revenge + relatively equal expected goals stats + the line value makes this a profitable play.