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Pick Details


MLB EVENT
May 13 2021 at 9:40 PM ET
Miami
at
Arizona
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 9.0 Evaluation: Win (900)
Pick
MIA (-114) @ pinnacle
There’s no reason to avoid Trevor Rogers right now. He has a 1.69 ERA with expected statistics right in the same range. He’s been phenomenal. He might regress from his 90.1% LOB% on the road, but he’s facing a Diamondbacks team that has come back to earth offensively outside of its 11-run game the other night. The DBacks are also 0-4 in their L4 against LHP starters
 
-Merrill Kelly has a 5.40 ERA this year that should probably be higher given his other numbers. His one career start against MIA yielded 7 ER in 6 IP, but ARI is 7-1 in his L8 home starts. With that said, his two home starts this year were against a banged up Padres team and an abysmal Rockies team
 
-The bullpen matchup here could be the X factor, as MIA’s bullpen is top-3 in the league and Arizona’s is going to be one of the worst by year’s end. I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than the books are giving credit for. 
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