Pick Details

(187) Oregon State vs. Washington (188) 11:00 PM | Sat, Nov 14 2020
Sport: NCAAF | Star Rating: 9.0 Evaluation: Loss (-972) - Final Score ORST 21 at WASH 27
-13.5 WASH (-108) @ Fanduel


Take Washington (#188)

Oregon State came into their opener against Wazzou last week with a boatload of hype here in Las Vegas.  Head coach Jonathan Smith saw legitimate improvement in Corvallis in his second season on the job last year, with the Beavers going from 2-10 in 2018 to 5-7 lain 2019, and they closed out the season on a 9-2 ATS run, building quite a betting bandwagon in the process.  With highly touted QB Tristan Gebbia taking over the QB duties; surrounded by some legit skill position talent, the Beavers were/are expected to take another step forward in 2020.

If you watched Oregon State lose at home to the Cougars last weekend, you already know that this team is not primed to take the next step.  This defense is slow, undersized and not primed for any significant improvement; a stop unit that has allowed 31 points per game or more every year since 2013.  Offensively, Gebbia was under pressure against a very suspect defense, taking four sacks.  The Beavers statistical profile looks better than they did -- they gained almost half of their yards in the fourth quarter against a tired defense playing soft coverage while protecting a double digit lead.

Washington doesn’t have a tired defense – they have an elite defense; a unit that hasn’t allowed 20 points per game in any of the last five seasons.  Oregon State’s offense hasn’t worked against this defense in any recent meeting – they’ve lost the last five by 52-7, 41-17, 42-7, 42-23 and 19-7 scores; nary a tight game or an offensive explosion in the bunch.

The Huskies got a little stale under Chris Peterson in recent seasons – they underachieved to the talent level on hand, particularly on the offensive side of the football.  I don’t expect that again in the first year of the Jimmy Lake era.  This year, the offensive line is massive, and they’re primed to run the ball down the Beavers collective throats.  Lake hasn’t named his starting QB, which means the Beavers have no idea – no film, no nothing – about who they’re going to see behind center, and what they’re going to look like running new coordinator John Donovan’s offense.  Last week’s cancelled game actually helps Washington here and it helps us as well, giving us a very reasonable price to lay with the favorite in a legitimate blowout spot.  Take Washington


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Star Rating is the number of units the handicapper is risking on the bet. Therefore, if the Star Rating is 7.0, it is a 7-unit pick. On plus odds picks, the handicapper is risking their Star Rating unit amount. On negative odds picks, the handicapper is betting enough to win their Star Rating unit amount.
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