|Under 44 (-107) @ pinnacle|
I'm playing on Baltimore/New England UNDER the total. I won with the Patriots to go 'over' in their last game, against the Jets. Therefore, you might wonder why I'd go with the 'under' against Baltimore, which has a better offense than New York. Well, there are a number of reasons. The obvious is that the Ravens have a much better defense than the Jets. Last week, they limited the Colts to just 10 points. In fact, they're allowing just 17.8 ppg, which is best in the entire NFL. (By comparison, the Jets allow 29.8 ppg, 27th best in the NFL.) Also, while the Jets were "playing out the string," every game is a big deal for Baltimore. In other words, there should be no lack of defensive intensity. We're also working with a higher O/U line than we were for the MNF game against the Jets, one which climbed from its opener to provide additional line value. It should also be noted that these teams both run the ball. A lot. The Ravens run the ball 33.3 times per game, #1 in the NFL. The Pats run the ball 32.8 times per game, tied for #2. With two stingy defenses and two offenses keeping the clock moving by running the ball with regularity, expect a low-scoring affair.