|9.5 ARK (101) @ pinnacle|
6 of 6 (100%) Experts with a pick against the spread are aligned. 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks (Spread).
AAA Sports: 10* SWEET 16 BEST OF BEST (83% HOT START)
Gonzaga was on the ropes in the second round against Memphis, down by ten at half time, but the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers 51-37 in the second half and managed the 82-78 victory. And I don't think things are going to get any easier on the Tournament's No. 1 seed here vs. this under the radar Arkansas Razorbacks team. Gonzaga is back in the Sweet 16 for a seventh straight year though, so this is an experienced Gonzaga team obviously, led by Chet Holmgren, who actually only had nine points and nine boards in the win over Memphis. Over the last six seasons the Zags have a 4-2 record in advancing to the Elite Eight and to do that again this season, they're going to have to have to beat an Arkansas team that advanced to this point by beating New Mexico State 53-48. JD Notae was big in that victory for the Razorbacks with 18 points and an amazing eight steals. Arkansas did lose the rebounding battle, but it won the steal ratio by a score of 3 to 1. This is the Razorbacks second straight Sweet 16 appearance, so this is a talented an experienced Arkansas team as well. And it's one that I think can also take Gonzaga down to the wire here in the Sweet 16 as well. I say Gonzaga makes it through to the Elite Eight again, but I think that it'll be another nail-biter here decided in the final moments.
Marc Lawrence: Marc’s 10* Sweet 16 Kill Play!
Edges - Razorbacks: Head coach Eric Musselman is 15-1 SU and 14-1-1 ATS in his college head coaching career in games when his teams are coming off a win of 5-plus points and are facing .875 or greater opponents … Bulldogs: No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 Round coming off consecutive ATS losses are 1-6-2 ATS when facing .750 or greater opponents … Our powerful database cements the call noting that No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 round coming off a single-digit win and facing a .735 or greater opponent are 7-5 SU and 0-10-2 ATS in this round if they are facing a foe that failed to beat the spread by 10 or more points in its last game and also surrendered fewer than 65 points in its last game.
Tim Michael: CBB BANKROLL BUILDER > > WINNING DAYS L3!
Arkansas has looked good in their games lately and I think they can keep this game close enough to cover the spread here. Arkansas put together a really good season this year and they ended it going on a huge run where they won 6/7 of their final 7 games. They didn't play well in their conference tournament as they got stopped in their 2nd game by Texas A&M, who ended up in the finals anyway, but they have looked a lot better since then and I think they will challenge Gonzaga here. Both of Arkansas' wins in this tournament have been in closer games but they haven't played against bad teams either. They made it out of the round of 64 over a Vermont team that dominated their conference during the regular season, then they made it out of the round of 32 with another close win by 5 over New Mexico State who upset UConn in the 1st round. Arkansas has had to grind out their wins here but they have been able to put up points when needed and they have looked good on defense when the shots aren't going so i think they have some options here on how to defend Gonzaga in this game and I expect them to put up a very good fight here. Gonzaga may be the 1st ranked team heading into this tournament but they haven't looked great in their games and I think they will leave Arkansas plenty of opportunity to stay in this game. Gonzaga opened up their tournament with a 20+ point win over Georgia State in the round of 64 but they struggled in the 1st half of that game, only leading by 2 points at the half, and it wasn't until the 2nd half where they started to gain their footing. Even in their most recent game, they just escaped the round of 32 with a 4 point win over Memphis and they were losing that game by 10 points at the half. They had to throw together another big run in the 2nd half but this time they just barely had enough in them to make the comeback. I think this is going to be another game that they struggle in the 1st half and Arkansas plays defense a lot better than the 2 teams they have already seen. I think Arkansas will give them a very good challenge here and they should be able to stick around in this game with a good defensive effort.
Sean Murphy: 10 OF 15? 10* NCAA TOP SWEET 16 SIDE!
Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game.
Scott Rickenbach: He is 30-17 / 64%! NCAA Earliest Cash TOP
The Razorbacks played the tougher regular season schedule in comparison with Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a great team of course and ranked #1 in the nation but this is a tough spot for them to win by double digits. They barely got by Memphis and remember they lost at St Mary's in final game of February. Arkansas enters this game having won 17 of 20 and 2 of those 3 losses were by just 4 or less points. Look for another tight game here and having the big points on your side is the way to go in this one.
Anthony Stalter: 9* Spread Beater ~ +110.3U L30 Days!
Arkansas has struggled offensively but given the way the Hogs have played defensively in this tournament, this line is too high. They’re similar to Memphis in the way they force turnovers and they have more depth and size than the Tigers, who matched up well with Gonzaga until fading in the second half.
Speaking of the Bulldogs, twice they’ve got off to slow starts defensively before flipping the switch after halftime. They’ve already proven they can win that way but thus far, they haven’t proven they can cover. If this line were lower, I’d consider passing on this game but with the spread now in double digits, there's too much value with the Hogs not to pounce.
Best of luck!
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