Pick Details

KC
at
LV
(471) Kansas City vs. Las Vegas (472) 8:20 PM | Sun, Nov 22 2020
Sport: NFL | Star Rating: 9.0 Evaluation: Loss (-900) - Final Score KC 35 at LV 31
Pick
-6.5 KC (104) @ pinnacle

My 9* NFL Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

SNF features a classic AFL rivalry, the Chiefs and Raiders. The defending champs are 8-1 and are coming off a bye to visit Las Vegas, where they will take on the 6-3 Raiders. The Raiders shocked the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City back in Week 5, as 11-point underdogs. The Raiders got crushed 45-20 at home by the Bucs in their next game but enter this contest on a 3-0 SU & ATS run. Mahomes is completing 66.9% for 2,687 yards with 25 TDs and just one INT (115.9 QB rating) but Carr is not far behind, completing 69.3% for 2,56 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (107.4 QB rating).

However, hanging over the game is COVID-19 issues. This paragraph is copied directly from a game preview to give the info its proper respect. The Raiders had their Oct 25 prime time game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shifted to the afternoon when offensive tackle Trent Brown came down with the virus and the entire starting offensive line was forced into quarantine until the morning of the game because of their high-risk contact with Brown. Tampa Bay cruised to a 45-20 victory. Following a positive test by starting defensive end Clelin Ferrell on Tuesday, seven more Raiders defensive players were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday - safety Johnathan Abram, defensive tackles Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins and Kendal Vickers, defensive back Isaiah Johnson, defensive end Arden Key and practice squad defensive end David Irving. They join safety Lamarcus Joyner, previously identified as a close contact of Ferrell, Brown and linebacker Cory Littleton, who was placed on the list last week. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. But the other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. Kansas City has its own COVID-19 issues with both starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, as well as backup Martinas Rankin going on the COVID list earlier this week after being in close contact with someone who tested positive. All could play Sunday, barring a positive test result.

As noted above, Mahomes is having a superb season. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire 'exploded' on the scene in Week 1 with 138 yards but he's had just one 100-yard game since. He has 586 yards on 4.7 YPC with two TDs on the season. The KC offense revolves around Mahomes and his spectacular group of receivers. Kelce is the best TE in the game and leads with 58 catches and six TDs. WR Hill is a game-changer/game-breaker with 44 catches and nine TDs (one rushing TD, as well). The WR trio of Hardeman, Watkins and Robinson have combined for 67 catches and five TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, KC's improvement helped them win the Super Bowl last season and make them one of the favorites to possibly win again in 2020. KC allowed 405.5 YPG (second-worst in the NFL) in 2018, while allowing 26.3 PPG. However, KC allowed just 19.3 PPG in 2019 and here in 2020, is allowing 20.3 PPG.

Carr's having a career-season and second-year RB Josh Jacobs has proven his rookie season was no fluke (1,150 yards on 4.8 YPC with 7 TDs in 13 games). Jacobs may be averaging a modest 3.8 YPC but he's run for 700 yards with eight TDs plus has 23 catches (just 20 all of last season). TE Waller may not be Kelce (just yet, anyway) but he has 53 catches and four TDs. WR Renfrow has 29 catches but the team's "big play" receiver is Agholor who has made his 18 catches count, averaging 19.7 YPC with five TDs.

Here's the rub. Gruden's defense has allowed 26.8 PPG on the season. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. The other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. However, those players will be limited to virtual practices and meetings until then and won't be allowed on the practice field together. Not exactly the best way to get your defense prepared for reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC has a HUGE "revenge motive" from the Raiders' 40-32 in their first meeting on back on Oct 11, the team's LONE loss in its last 18 games (including the postseason) in 18 games (17-1) plus then there is ONE more important stat. KC head coach Andy Reid is 18-3 SU in regular-season games after a bye during his 22 seasons as a head coach! Also, despite the Raiders' win at KC earlier this season, they've won just TWO of their last 11 against the Chiefs since 2015. One closing thought. Yes, KC has a 'number' to cover but the well-rested Chiefs check in on a 23-8 ATS run as an away favorite. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

 

 

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