|OTT (110) @ williamhill|
Taking the Senators for 8* here...
Ottawa has played some good hockey against good opponents (Leafs for two games, Jets last game) and are still top 10 in the league in terms of expected goals differential (expected goals "for" / expected goals "against"). The Jets on the other hand, have played horribly at 5 on 5, sitting in 28th place in the league in expected goals %. Last game the Senators dominated yet still lost, posting a 67% expected goals differential in their loss to the Jets in OT. They were scored on with the Jets' goalie pulled in the last two minutes to make it more painful. I don't expect quite the same domination by the Senators since the Jets were on the back end of a back-to-back, but I expect them to win.
We're getting a lot of value with Senators at home, playing better, and still underdogs.