5 of 6 (83%) Experts with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 7* play on the Golden State (Spread).

Cappers Analysis:

Ben Burns: *HUGE PLAY* 2ND RD 10* BEST OF THE BEST!

I love how this one sets up for the Warriors. They haven't covered for awhile and are off a loss. That's helped to keep the line lower than it could have been. While the Warriors may have dropped Game 2 and may have failed to cover the two games at Memphis, they did, in fact, accomplish what they needed to. They earned a split and are now back home. Remember, this is a highly (playoff) experienced and very well-coached team which knows how to get it done, in this very situation. It also favors the Warriors that there has been a few days off in between games. They're 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the past eight times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. During the same span, the Grizzlies are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. They're just 2-7 SU their last nine in that situation. These teams have met four straight times at Memphis now. The Warriors won the last meeting here by nine points though. They're 25-6 SU and 20-11 ATS the past 31 times that they played with 'revenge.' I'm expecting a double-digit win. 

Doug Knudson: CONF SEMIFINAL ENCOUNTER (167-145 NBA RUN

Buy Warriors - lucky to come out with a split after 2 subpar performances, look for this Warrior team to put it all together and run this young bear team out of the stadium - Flat before gm #2 after escaping with an One point win after Memphis misses a layup at the buzzer then followed up after never being in the game next out - but coming off that upset loss against this same team and extra time off (4+ days off - perfect 3-0 ATS) to prepare and get it together, could be a wire-to-wire bloodbath - only GS 2nd loss past 13 games  - not scared to lay points as Warriors are 25-17 ATS at home this season

Sell Memphis - This Young Bears team has to feel pretty satisfied right now beating up on this Warrior team last out - but that will only get Warriors' attention and after 4 days off (Memphis 1-2 ATS 4+ days off) - lookout - My Models made this a double-digit line - After a Red-Hot run (23-6), Memphis only 6-6 past 12 games

Power Sports: SAT NIGHT POWER-SLAM ~ OFF 2-0 SWEEP!

The Warriors were able to wrest home court advantage away from the Grizzlies, taking Game 1 by a score of 117-116. Having bet the Over, that result sat well with me. I sat out Game 2 (no play), which was won by Memphis 106-101 and not without controversy. Dillon Brooks injuring Gary Payton II has resulted in BOTH players being out for Game 3 (Brooks is suspended). We saw both home teams come out fired up last night in NBA playoff action and though not down 0-2 in the series like the Sixers & Mavs, I expect the Warriors to come out just as fired up here. 

Another difference between the Dubs and last night’s home sides is that we are having to lay points. Not a concern of mine as they are, in my estimation, clearly the better team here. Memphis was fortunate to advance out of the first round, let alone take the series in six games, They overcame double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter in three of those wins. Losing Brooks is going to be significant as he had three 23+ point games vs. the Timberwolves. I also don’t see Ja Morant matching his Game 2 production (47 points) tonight as he made more threes on Tuesday (five) than he did in the entire first round series (four). 

Speaking of three-point shooting, the Warriors were historically bad in Game 2, making only 18.4 percent. It was the worst three-point shooting performance in the playoffs in franchise history. Klay Thompson was 2 for 12 while Steph Curry was 3 for 11. To say they’ll improve dramatically tonight seems like an obvious statement. Memphis, despite Morant’s 47 points, didn’t shoot that well either in the last game. But Golden State clearly has more room for improvement here and they are 34-10 SU at home (3-0 in Rd 1), outscoring visiting teams by more than 10 PPG on the year. They’ve held the rebounding edge in both games.

Sean Murphy: 4 OF 5? NBA ON ABC SHOW STOPPER!

The Grizzlies have taken the cash in each of the first two games in this series and we won with them in Game 2. I think they'll be hard-pressed to cover in a third straight contest on Saturday, however, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 3. You can be sure Ja Morant's 'you can't guard me' proclamation hasn't sat well with Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors. Golden State will be out to make an example of Morant and the Grizz on Saturday and I'm confident we'll see them do just that. While the Warriors will be without Gary Payton II, the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as he serves his one-game suspension for the hard foul on Payton in Game 2. Brooks' absence is arguably more critical. Here, we'll note that Golden State has gone 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by a convincing 11.2 points on average in that spot. This series will likely still feature plenty of twists and turns but I believe Saturday's outcome will be fairly straight-forward.

Spread Knowledge: NBA Excellent Machine Grade value ***A***

Golden State Warriors picks are 27-14-1 when the point spread is smaller than the current point spread since 2021-01-27 with a profit of +11 units
Golden State Warriors picks are 28-17-1 when the point spread absolute value is greater than the current point spread since 2021-03-11 with a profit of +9 units
Golden State Warriors picks are 28-18-3 when after a game total under result since 2021-05-06 with a profit of +8 units

Best of luck!