|PIT (-109) @ Draftkings|
Taking the Penguins for 8* here...
Pittsburgh outplayed the Flyers both of their last two games with expected goals percentages of 51% and 62.5% at 5 on 5. The Flyers mostly got their wins from Hart playing great in goal.
The Capitals however, have been outplayed by the Sabres in their first two games despite winning. They generated only 42.5% and 38% expected goals in those games.
So we have two teams in opposite situations -- one that has played well and lost, and the other that has played poorly and won. I expect this illogical trend to be cut short and have the Penguins come away with the win.