The wrong team is slightly favored here. San Francisco is -107 on the moneyline, and this one should not only switch sides, but it should soar towards the Reds. This one is lobsided offensively and on the mound. For Cincinnati, it's Luis Castillo. His ERA this year is pretty misleading, because he got hammered in his season opener against the Cardinals; but, he settled in nicely in his next start against the Pirates and went 7 innings, allowed 4 hits, and gave up just one walk. It was like night and day between his two starts. And even better for us, he loves pitching against the San Francisco Giants. In 3 career starts against them, he's 2-0 with just a 2.29 ERA in over 19 innings pitched. For San Francisco, it's Kevin Gausman on the mound. I don't think this guy is as good as he's been in his first two starts. He's allowing a ton of hard contact and has high expected offensive stats against him, but he's just getting bailed out. Castillo loves pitching against the Giants, and this guy HATES pitching against the Reds. He's got an 0-3 record with a 12.79 ERA in 3 career starts against Cincinnati, and he has given up 4 homeruns to them in just 12 innings pitched in his career.
Offensively, Cincinnati's been hot as well. With both starters being righties, and you look at the offenses here, they're 3rd in the MLB in OPS against righties vs San Francisco being 23rd. Cincinnati is also in first place by far in the MLB with runners in scoring position, with a 1.012 OPS with runners in scoring position versus the Giants at .805.