|-5.5 KU (-106) @ pinnacle|
7 of 8 (87%) Experts with a pick on the total are aligned. 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks (Spread).
AAA Sports: 10* ELITE 8 'ASSASSIN!' (THE BIG ONE!)
I am traveling this weekend, so my analysis is more "succinct" than it normally would be. The bottom line for this play is that the Jayhawks have arguably looked like the most well-rounded and dominant team in the Tournament so far. Miami has had lapses on both ends of the court this year. The Hurricanes struggle on the defensive end at times. And this Kansas defense, which allows just 42.1 % shooting from the floor, will be up to the task of slowing down this Hurricanes' potentially dangerous offense. Kansas holds a huge offensive rebounding edge, 32.1% compared to just 20.2% for the Canes. The rebounding and defensive edges that the Jayhawks have in this matchup will turn out to be the difference for them in the end; lay the points!
Al McMordie: BIG AL's 91% NCAA TOURNEY ELITE 8 WINNER!
The #1-seeded Jayhawks come into today's game off back to back point spread losses to Creighton and Providence, while Miami has covered all 3 of its Tourney games. The good news, though, for Bill Self's Jayhawks is that they're an awesome 46-4 SU and 36-13-1 ATS at home, or on neutral courts off back to back ATS losses, if they weren't favored by more than 12 points. And if the game was a post-season game, then our 36-13-1 stat zooms to 10-1, 91% ATS. That bodes well for Kansas this afternoon. As does the fact that Kansas is 51-26 ATS when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -13.5 against a foe off 3 ATS wins.
Ben Burns: ELITE 8 (10*) BEST OF BEST! (OFF 5-0 SAT)
The Hurricanes just beat up on a team from the Big 12 and now they'll face another. The problem is that Kansas is better than Iowa State. A lot better. While Iowa State was a middle of the road team in that conference, Kansas is the best. The very well-coached Jayhawks can beat teams on both ends of the ball. They're stingy but unlike the Cyclones, they can also score. Miami scores 74.6 ppg. Kansas scores 78.4 ppg. Miami allows 70.2 ppg. Kansas allows 67.7. A closer look reveals that opposing teams connect on 45.7% of their field goals against Miami but only 41.2% of their field goals against Kansas. That's a significant difference. Speaking of differences, super senior Remy Martin off the bench ha been a difference maker for Kansas. The fact that the Jayhawks failed to cover the past two games has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. Expect Kansas to put it all together this afternoon, punching their ticket to the Final Four with a convincing double-digit victory.
Doug Knudson: 10* GAME OF THE WEEK (114-92 (10*) RUN)!
MY MODELS MADE KANSAS -9
Larry Ness: Larry's Situational Stunner (4 in a row?)
Jim Larranaga entered this season having led the Hurricanes to six, 20-win seasons in his 10 years, to all three of the school's 25-win seasons and to two of the school's three Sweet 16 appearances. By the way, I could also throw in him leading unheralded George Mason to a Final 4 appearance back in 2006. The 'Canes were awful last season (10-17 / 4-15 in the ACC), but this year's team contended for the ACC title during the regular season, before losing in the ACC semifinals to top-seeded Duke. Now, the 10th-seeded Miami Hurricanes are taking on Kansas (No.1 seed in the Midwest), looking to continue a historic run that has vaulted the program to its first-ever Elite Eight appearance. Bill Self's Jayhawks began the current season ranked No. 3, tied Baylor for the regular season title but then won the Big 12 tourney to enter the Big Dance as one of four No. 1 seeds. Ho-hum!
Miami forced 18 Cyclones turnovers and held Iowa State to 4-of-22 shooting from three-point distance in Friday's 70-56 win. 26-19 Miami is led by a quartet of guards. The group includes McGusty (17.8 & 4.9), Wong (15.3 & 4.3), Moore (12.6 & 4.7 APG) and Miller (10.3 & 6.0). Miami's lone big man of note is the 6-10 Waardenburg (8.6 & 4.3), although the 6-9 Walker contributes 5.0 & 2.4 in just 14 MPG. Wong and Moore were held scoreless in the first half against 11th-seeded Iowa State, but McGusty and Jordan Miller teamed with forward Sam Waardenburg to score each of the team's 32 points as the Hurricanes took a three-point edge to intermission. McGusty finished with a game-high 27 points, Moore had 16 and Waardenburg posted 13 points, eight rebounds, five assists and three blocks to help the Hurricanes pull away for a 70-56 victory.
31-6 Kansas features two big guards in Agbaji (18.9 & 5.2) and Braun (14.3 & 6.5) but PG Martin, an ASU transfer that was named the Big 12's preseason POY), had a shaky regular season and he never really gained Self's complete trust on running the attack. Up front, it's the 6-7 Wilson (11.3 & 7.3) and the 6-10 McCormack (10.0 & 6.9). However, in Kansas' 66-61 Sweet 16 victory over fourth-seeded Providence, Martin had a game-high 23 points. He's now led Kansas in all THREE of its NCAA tourney games (19.3-5.0-3.7) and CLEARLY has Self's trust now. Agbaji, a Naismith Player of the Year finalist, had five points against the Friars, on 2-for-8 shooting, by far his lowest output of the tournament. That said, Self indicated the team isn't panicking. Agbaji had four blocks, four boards and two steals while helping to steady a defense that held Providence to 33.8% shooting, including a 4-for-23 effort from three-point range. The 6-7 Wilson contributed 16 points and 11 rebounds against Providence.
Kansas is the more balanced team and with the resurgent Martin teaming with Agbaji and Braun, Kansas can match Miami's dazzling guard play. Up front, it's all Kansas with Wilson and McCormack plus the 6-8 Lightfoot (4.6 & 2.8), who played well during the season when McCormack had some struggles. As noted above, Larranaga led unheralded George Mason to a Final 4 appearance back in 2006 but he will NOT make a 'return visit' with Miami here in 2022. Rather, it will be Kansas advancing to its first Final 4 since 2018. That seems like a 'drought' for the winningest team in college basketball history.
Professional Sports Picks: 11-4 Run - CBB Max Bet Game of the Week
Our models suggest that top-seeded Kansas will win and cover as a favorite against Miami-Florida in the NCAA Tournament Midwest regional championship on Sunday. The Hurricanes won as outright underdogs in their first games of the tournament before breezing past 11th-seeded Iowa State as a favorite in the last round. This will be the toughest test they've faced so far though, and Kansas has shown no weakness through its first three games. Kansas has is 0-2 ATS in its last two games, but the bookmakers are aware of that and adjust the numbers accordingly. The Jayhawks have a better starting 5 and a much, much better bench which will give them plenty of chances to pull away.
Tim Michael: CBB BANKROLL BUILDER! > > 2-0 CBB RUN!
I like Kansas to cover the spread against Miami-FL in this game on Sunday. Kansas has looked really good in their games lately and I think they will carry on their momentum into this game. Kansas has won 8 games in a row now and they are the only 1st seeded team left in the tournament. They just won against Providence in the sweet 16 by 5 points but they had control in that entire game and led for most of it. Kansas has looked really good with their defensive play in particular and they haven't been giving up a ton of points to opposing teams lately. They have given up 65 points or less in 6/7 of their previous 7 games and they have won a majority of those games by 10+ points. Miami has also looked good in their games lately too but I think this is where the end of the line is for them. They have 1 very impressive win over Auburn in the round of 32 by 15+ points but even Auburn was not playing their best in this tournament and they looked shaky near the end of the year. Their other 2 wins were against USC and Iowa State, both are teams that weren't even playing great before this tournament started. Miami was struggling to win games near the end of their regular season too, they won a lot of close games by a few points and although they have looked much better in their 2 most recent games, they will still have a lot on their hands with Kansas in this game. I think Kansas will be able to shut down Miami with their defensive effort and I expect Kansas to put them away here. I think Kansas will take an early lead here and once they are ahead they will hold onto their lead with their great defense and make it very tough for Miami to come back on them. I like Kansas to cover the spread here.
Best of luck!
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